College of Economics and Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun, Jilin, China.
Department of Agricultural Economics and Finance, Mwalimu Julius. K. Nyerere University of Agriculture and Technology, Musoma, Tanzania.
PLoS One. 2022 Aug 12;17(8):e0272812. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0272812. eCollection 2022.
Beef meat production is the key to reducing poverty, achieving food security and nutrition, promoting exports, economic growth, and industrialization. Despite a large number of beef cattle, Tanzania continues to import beef meat and its contribution to GDP is low. Thus, this study used time-series panel data to analyze the beef meat industry in Tanzania from 1990 to 2019, with a particular focus on identifying the reasons and direction of the correlation between beef meat output and its determinants in the production processes. The study applied both descriptive statistics and the Cobb-Douglas production function model, using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) based estimator to analyze the data. Descriptive analyses revealed that Tanzania's beef meat production increased by 283,871 tons (59.3%-a positive trend) between 1990 and 2019. This increase was accompanied by approximately 29.75%, 53.05%, and 42.42% increases in beef cattle yield (carcass weight (hg) per head, beef cattle inventory, and the number of beef cattle slaughtered, respectively). However, the analysis further revealed that a 2.8% decrease in beef cattle extraction (low harvesting) rate due to low market participation, continues to be a critical barrier to increasing beef meat production in Tanzania. Furthermore, econometric estimates showed that the key factors that positively influenced beef meat output at a 5% significance level (P < 0.05) included beef cattle population (inventory), beef cattle yield (carcass weight (kg) per head, and the number of beef cattle slaughtered, with elasticity coefficients of 0.146, 0.469, and 0.564, respectively). While the number of beef cattle exported positively influenced beef meat production at the 10% significance level (P < 0.1) with an elasticity coefficient of 0.028. Surprisingly, invested credit to agriculture (farm credits) and imported pure-bred beef cattle had a negative impact on beef meat output but were statistically insignificant at P < 0.05. The results of this study have implications as to what factors need to be addressed to further improve beef meat production, thereby reducing its reliance on imports. We suggest that the Tanzania government and policymakers need to establish balanced policies for beef farmers and appropriately manage them so that beef meat development can be induced, contributing to poverty reduction, food security, and economic development.
牛肉生产是减少贫困、实现粮食安全和营养、促进出口、经济增长和工业化的关键。尽管坦桑尼亚拥有大量的肉牛，但仍继续进口牛肉，其对 GDP 的贡献较低。因此，本研究使用时间序列面板数据，从 1990 年到 2019 年分析了坦桑尼亚的牛肉行业，特别关注确定牛肉产量与其生产过程中决定因素之间的关联的原因和方向。该研究应用了描述性统计和柯布-道格拉斯生产函数模型，使用基于普通最小二乘法（OLS）的估计器对数据进行分析。描述性分析显示，1990 年至 2019 年，坦桑尼亚的牛肉产量增加了 283871 吨（59.3%——呈正趋势）。这一增长伴随着牛肉产量（每头牛的胴体重（hg）、牛群存栏量和屠宰牛数量）分别约 29.75%、53.05%和 42.42%的增长。然而，分析进一步表明，由于市场参与度低，牛肉牛提取（低收获）率下降 2.8%，继续成为坦桑尼亚增加牛肉产量的关键障碍。此外，计量经济学估计显示，在 5%的显著水平（P<0.05）下，对牛肉产量产生积极影响的关键因素包括牛群（存栏量）、牛肉产量（每头牛的胴体重（kg）和屠宰牛数量），弹性系数分别为 0.146、0.469 和 0.564。而出口的牛肉数量对牛肉生产的积极影响在 10%的显著水平（P<0.1）下，弹性系数为 0.028。令人惊讶的是，农业投资信贷（农场信贷）和进口纯血牛肉对牛肉产量产生负面影响，但在 P<0.05 时无统计学意义。本研究的结果表明，需要解决哪些因素才能进一步提高牛肉产量，从而减少对进口的依赖。我们建议坦桑尼亚政府和政策制定者需要为牛肉农民制定平衡的政策，并对其进行适当管理，以便可以诱导牛肉发展，为减贫、粮食安全和经济发展做出贡献。
