Xiong Chang-Sheng, Hu Yu-Yao, Zhou Tian-Xiao, Tan Rong, Zhang Yong-Lei
School of Public Administration, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China.
School of Business, Shaoxing University, Shaoxing 312000, Zhejiang, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2022 May;33(5):1395-1404. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202205.021.
The impact of infrastructure investment on social-economic system or ecological system has been widely discussed, yet, the overall impact of infrastructure investment on social-ecological system (SES) is still unknown. This study summarized the impact mechanism of infrastructure investment on social ecosystem vulnerability. We first sorted out the impact mechanism of infrastructure investment on SES vulnerability, and then empirically analyzed the effect of provincial infrastructure investment on SES vulnerability by using spatial autocorrelation and spatial econometric models on the basis of accounting provincial per capita infrastructure capital stock and comprehensive evaluation of SES vulnerability. The results showed that the infrastructure capital stock per capita at provincial level increased significantly during 2004-2017, with a spatial pattern that the north was higher than the south and the east/west was higher than the middle in China. The provincial SES vulnerability was improved, with spatial distribution characteristics of gradually getting worse from east to west in China. There was positive spatial correlation between provincial infrastructure investment and SES vulnerability, with aggregation distribution characteristics. There was inverted U-shaped relationship between infrastructure investment and SES vulnerability in China, that was, the appropriate investment of infrastructure at early could decrease SES vulnerability, while over-investment would increase it. Our results revealed the overall impact mechanism and dynamic characteristics of infrastructure investment on SES vulnerability, and could provide theoretical and policy-making support for the coordination of infrastructure construction and SES vulnerability governance at the macro level for China.
基础设施投资对社会经济系统或生态系统的影响已得到广泛讨论，然而，基础设施投资对社会生态系统（SES）的总体影响仍不明确。本研究总结了基础设施投资对社会生态系统脆弱性的影响机制。我们首先梳理了基础设施投资对SES脆弱性的影响机制，然后在核算省级人均基础设施资本存量并综合评估SES脆弱性的基础上，运用空间自相关和空间计量模型实证分析省级基础设施投资对SES脆弱性的影响。结果表明，2004—2017年中国省级人均基础设施资本存量显著增加，呈现出北方高于南方、东部/西部高于中部的空间格局。省级SES脆弱性得到改善，在中国呈现出从东向西逐渐恶化的空间分布特征。省级基础设施投资与SES脆弱性之间存在正的空间相关性，具有集聚分布特征。中国基础设施投资与SES脆弱性之间存在倒U形关系，即早期适当的基础设施投资可以降低SES脆弱性，而过度投资则会增加SES脆弱性。我们的研究结果揭示了基础设施投资对SES脆弱性的总体影响机制和动态特征，可为中国宏观层面基础设施建设与SES脆弱性治理的协调提供理论和决策支持。
