Ding Guoying, Zhao L I, Xu Jie, Cheng Jingye, Cai Yiyang, Du Huihui, Xiao Guosheng, Zhao Feng
College of Biology and Food Engineering, Chongqing Three Gorges University, Wanzhou, Chongqing 404100, People's Republic of China.
J Food Prot. 2022 Sep 1;85(9):1320-1328. doi: 10.4315/JFP-21-238.
Vibrio parahaemolyticus is the main foodborne pathogen worldwide that causes acute gastroenteritis. A quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) was conducted to evaluate the health risk associated with V. parahaemolyticus in shellfish in the coastal cities in the eastern part of the People's Republic of China. The QMRA framework was established from shellfish at retail to cooking at home to consumption. The prevalence and level of V. parahaemolyticus in shellfish, cooking methods, storage temperature, time after purchase, shellfish consumption frequency, and consumption amount were analyzed in the exposure assessment. The results of the exposure assessment were introduced into the beta-Poisson dose-response model, and Monte Carlo analysis was used to calculate the risk of gastroenteritis from shellfish consumption. The probability of illness caused by V. parahaemolyticus from shellfish consumption per person per year (Pill,yr) was 3.49E-05. Seasonal differences were noted in the Pill/meal; the maximum was 4.81E-06 in summer and the minimum was 2.27E-07 in winter. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the level of V. parahaemolyticus in shellfish and the amount of shellfish consumed per meal were main factors contributing to illness. This QMRA provided valuable information such as the probability of illness associated with the consumption of shellfish and reference points for prevention strategies and control standards of V. parahaemolyticus in shellfish.
副溶血性弧菌是全球主要的食源性病原体，可引起急性肠胃炎。开展了定量微生物风险评估（QMRA），以评估中华人民共和国东部沿海城市贝类中副溶血性弧菌相关的健康风险。QMRA框架从零售贝类到家庭烹饪再到消费建立起来。在暴露评估中分析了贝类中副溶血性弧菌的流行率和水平、烹饪方法、储存温度、购买后的时间、贝类消费频率和消费量。将暴露评估结果引入β-泊松剂量反应模型，并使用蒙特卡洛分析计算食用贝类导致肠胃炎的风险。每人每年因食用贝类感染副溶血性弧菌而患病的概率（Pill,yr）为3.49E-05。每餐的Pill存在季节性差异；夏季最高为4.81E-06，冬季最低为2.27E-07。敏感性分析表明，贝类中副溶血性弧菌的水平和每餐食用贝类的量是导致患病的主要因素。该QMRA提供了宝贵信息，如食用贝类相关的患病概率以及贝类中副溶血性弧菌预防策略和控制标准的参考点。
