Ruggles Steven
University of Minnesota November 2020.
Soc Sci Hist. 2021 Spring;45(1):1-25. doi: 10.1017/ssh.2020.44. Epub 2021 Jan 12.
Quantitative historical analysis in the United States surged in three distinct waves. The first quantitative wave occurred as part of the "New History" that blossomed in the early twentieth century and disappeared in the 1940s and 1950s with the rise of consensus history. The second wave thrived from the 1960s to the 1980s during the ascendance of the New Economic History, the New Political History, and the New Social History, and died out during the "cultural turn" of the late twentieth century. The third wave of historical quantification-which I call the revival of quantification-emerged in the second decade of the 21 century and is still underway. I describe characteristics of each wave and discuss the historiographical context of the ebb and flow of quantification in history.
美国的定量历史分析经历了三次不同的浪潮。第一次定量浪潮是20世纪初蓬勃发展的“新历史”的一部分，随着共识历史在20世纪40年代和50年代的兴起而消失。第二次浪潮在20世纪60年代至80年代新经济史、新政治史和新社会史的上升时期蓬勃发展，并在20世纪后期的“文化转向”中消亡。第三次历史量化浪潮——我称之为量化的复兴——出现在21世纪的第二个十年，目前仍在进行中。我描述了每一次浪潮的特征，并讨论了历史上量化兴衰的史学背景。
