Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, 4350, Australia; Water Modeling Solutions Pvt. Ltd., Kathmandu, Nepal.
Water Modeling Solutions Pvt. Ltd., Kathmandu, Nepal; Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Environ Res. 2022 Nov;214(Pt 1):113746. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113746. Epub 2022 Jun 26.
Despite being one of the proven clean-energy technologies, hydroelectricity is losing attention in global research. Hydroelectricity is extremely important for countries possessing the required water resources, already heavily reliant on it and those lacking the financial capacity to invest in other expensive energy technologies. This study assessed the possible impact of climate change (CC) on hydro-energy generation in the Nepalese Himalaya (possessing eight peaks out of 14 over 8000 m) with a tremendous hydropower potential (∼50,000 MW). A planned 1200 MW storage type Budhigandaki Hydroelectricity Project is taken as a case. We estimated the energy generation for the baseline as well as 10 CC scenarios considering RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 at monthly, seasonal, and annual temporal scales for the mid-century. Results show that energy generation is highly dependent on the reservoir operating rule. The average annual energy generation is expected to vary within -5 to +12% of the base case in the mid-century, with significant variations across the months. We also infer that designing hydro-projects based on ensembled climate values could lead to a "rosy" but less probable and risky picture of energy generation in the future. Therefore, assessment of a wide spectrum of plausible CC scenarios are recommended. Storage type projects with provision of flexible operating rules considering finer temporal resolution and allocation to competing users (in case of multipurpose projects) supported by appropriate policies are desirable for climate resiliency. Complementing the existing energy generation mix with other technologies in areas where hydroelectricity is expected to undergo adverse impacts of CC is warranted for attaining future energy security and environmental safeguarding. Possibility of additional energy due to CC is a strong motivation for this region to focus on hydroelectricity development in the future.
尽管水电是经过验证的清洁能源技术之一，但它在全球研究中的关注度正在下降。对于拥有所需水资源的国家、已经严重依赖水电的国家以及那些没有财力投资其他昂贵能源技术的国家来说，水电至关重要。本研究评估了气候变化（CC）对尼泊尔喜马拉雅地区（拥有 14 座 8000 米以上的山峰中的 8 座）水力发电的潜在影响，该地区拥有巨大的水电潜力（约 50000 兆瓦）。以规划中的 1200 兆瓦蓄能型布迪甘达基水电项目为例。我们考虑了 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景，在月、季和年时间尺度上，对基准年和 10 个 CC 情景下的能源发电量进行了估算。结果表明，能源发电量高度依赖于水库运行规则。在本世纪中叶，年平均能源发电量预计将在基准案例的-5%至+12%范围内变化，各月之间存在显著差异。我们还推断，基于集合气候值设计水电项目可能会导致对未来能源发电量的“乐观”但不太可能且风险较大的预测。因此，建议对各种可能的 CC 情景进行评估。具有灵活运行规则的蓄能型项目，考虑到更精细的时间分辨率和对竞争用户的分配（在多用途项目的情况下），并得到适当政策的支持，对于气候适应力是理想的。在预计将受到 CC 不利影响的地区，用其他技术来补充现有的能源组合，对于实现未来的能源安全和环境保护是必要的。由于 CC 而产生的额外能源的可能性是该地区未来专注于水电开发的一个强有力的动机。
