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非马尔可夫多状态模型中转移概率的推断。

Inference for transition probabilities in non-Markov multi-state models.

机构信息

Section of Biostatistics, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, PB 2099, 1014, Copenhagen K, Denmark.

Institute for Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ljubljana, Vrazov Trg 2, 1000, Ljubljana, Slovenia.

出版信息

Lifetime Data Anal. 2022 Oct;28(4):585-604. doi: 10.1007/s10985-022-09560-w. Epub 2022 Jun 28.

Abstract

Multi-state models are frequently used when data come from subjects observed over time and where focus is on the occurrence of events that the subjects may experience. A convenient modeling assumption is that the multi-state stochastic process is Markovian, in which case a number of methods are available when doing inference for both transition intensities and transition probabilities. The Markov assumption, however, is quite strict and may not fit actual data in a satisfactory way. Therefore, inference methods for non-Markov models are needed. In this paper, we review methods for estimating transition probabilities in such models and suggest ways of doing regression analysis based on pseudo observations. In particular, we will compare methods using land-marking with methods using plug-in. The methods are illustrated using simulations and practical examples from medical research.

摘要

多状态模型常用于对随时间观测的对象进行数据分析,主要关注对象可能经历的事件的发生情况。一种方便的建模假设是多状态随机过程是马尔可夫式的,这种情况下,在对转移强度和转移概率进行推断时,有多种方法可用。然而,马尔可夫假设非常严格,可能无法以令人满意的方式拟合实际数据。因此,需要非马尔可夫模型的推断方法。在本文中,我们回顾了此类模型中转移概率的估计方法,并提出了基于伪观测值进行回归分析的方法。特别是,我们将比较使用标记的方法和使用插件的方法。该方法使用医学研究中的模拟和实际示例进行了说明。

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