Assessment of the foot-and-mouth disease surveillance system in Brazil.

In 2021, the 88th General Session of the World Assembly of National Delegates to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) recognized the estates of Acre, Paraná, the Rio Grande do Sul, and Rondônia as being free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) without vaccination. The certification was also extended to some cities in Amazonas and Mato Grosso. The new national strategic plan for 2026, which focuses on creating and maintaining sustainable conditions to expand FMD-free zones without vaccination, imposes new challenges and requires continuous evaluation of the FMD surveillance system. The objective of this research was to evaluate the FMD surveillance system in Brazil using quantitative models through Bayesian network approaches. The research was conducted using the Continental Surveillance and Information System (SivCont) database for Official Veterinary Services in Brazil, which refers to notified vesicular syndromes. The data on states, reported diseases, source of notification, disease confirmation, and timeliness (TL in days) of the delay by owners in notifying (TL.1) after a suspected case of the disease, and the response of Brazilian Veterinary Services after being notified (TL.2), were analysed. The collected data were analysed using Bayesian networks. It was observed that diseases with symptoms identical to FMD are the most notified events. TL.1 was long (mean of 18.96, CI: 18.33-19.59), and a low number of notifications was observed throughout the study period, which increases the chances of disseminating FMD in the population. Meanwhile, TL.2 suggests appropriate effectiveness of the Veterinary Services responding to suspected cases of FMD with interventions in less than 24 h (mean of 1, CI: 0.68-1.31). This study evaluated the performance of Brazilian Veterinary Services facing the report of vesicular diseases in the period 2004-2018. The results can help the states improve the surveillance system and the transition to the vaccination stop. Furthermore, the analytical method presented in the paper could serve as a model for other countries to evaluate the effectiveness of FMD surveillance systems.