Department of Environmental Science & Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China.
Department of Environmental Science & Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Nov 1;845:157074. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157074. Epub 2022 Jun 30.
Climate change pressure and biodiversity degradation in coastal regions have caused an increase in urban vulnerability. Current coastal vulnerability studies fail to consider the interactions among the perturbations. Increases in such interactions contribute to the indeterminate changes in the ecosystem productivity and impact on human well-being. Therefore, by integrating water, heat, and vegetation biodiversity (WHB) indicators using catastrophe theory in the study, the interaction among subsystems was explored to expound on the multi-effect of the urban. The results showed that (1) the overall vulnerability of China's coastal cities has increased, and high-value areas were mainly distributed in the three southern provinces; (2) the spatial-temporal pattern of vulnerability was highly heterogeneous. As low-low clusters, Shanghai and its surrounding cities exhibited spatial aggregation characteristics; (3) social, physical and financial capitals were the first three main adaptive capacity factors. The distance-based linear model (DistLM) evidenced that per capita GDP, and road density explained about 30 % and 10 % of the difference in vulnerability variation. The proposed framework could help decision-makers detect how vulnerable coastal areas exposed to WHB impacts are, with crucial implications for future sustainable management.
气候变化压力和沿海地区生物多样性退化导致城市脆弱性增加。当前的沿海脆弱性研究未能考虑到各种干扰因素之间的相互作用。这些相互作用的增加导致生态系统生产力的不确定变化，并对人类福祉产生影响。因此，本研究通过利用突变理论整合水、热和植被生物多样性（WHB）指标，探讨了子系统之间的相互作用，以阐述城市的多效性。结果表明：（1）中国沿海城市的整体脆弱性有所增加，高值区主要分布在三省南部；（2）脆弱性的时空格局高度异质，以上海及其周边城市为代表的低-低聚类表现出空间集聚特征；（3）社会、物理和金融资本是前三个主要适应能力因素。基于距离的线性模型（DistLM）表明，人均国内生产总值和道路密度分别解释了脆弱性变化差异的 30%和 10%左右。该框架可以帮助决策者检测沿海地区暴露于 WHB 影响的脆弱性，对未来的可持续管理具有重要意义。
