Rao Ananth, M V Manoj Kumar, Moonesar Immanuel Azaad, Atalla Shadi, Prashanth B S, Joshi Gaurav, Soni Tarun K, Le Thi, Verma Anuj, Marashdeh Hazem
Dubai Business School, University of Dubai, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Department of Information Science and Engineering, Nitte Meenakshi Institute of Technology, Bangalore, India.
Front Artif Intell. 2022 Jun 15;5:912403. doi: 10.3389/frai.2022.912403. eCollection 2022.
The paper models investor sentiments (IS) to attract investments for Health Sector and Growth in emerging markets, ., India, Mainland China, and the UAE, by asking questions such as: What specific healthcare sector opportunities are available in the three markets? Are the USA-IS key IS predictors in the three economies? How important are macroeconomic and sociocultural factors in predicting IS in these markets? How important are economic crises and pandemic events in predicting IS in these markets? Is there contemporaneous relation in predicting IS across the three countries in terms of USA-IS, and, if yes, is the magnitude of the impact of USA-IS uniform across the three countries' IS? The artificial neural network (ANN) model is applied to weekly time-series data from January 2003 to December 2020 to capture behavioral elements in the investors' decision-making in these emerging economies. The empirical findings confirmed the superiority of the ANN framework over the traditional logistic model in capturing the cognitive behavior of investors. Health predictor-current health expenditure as a percentage of GDP, USA IS predictor-spread, and Macro-factor GDP-annual growth % are the common predictors across the 3 economies that positively impacted the emerging markets' IS behavior. USA (S&P 500) return is the only common predictor across the three economies that negatively impacted the emerging markets' IS behavior. However, the magnitude of both positive and negative impacts varies across the countries, signifying unique, diverse socioeconomic, cultural, and market features in each of the 3 economies. The results have four key implications: Firstly, US market sentiments are an essential factor influencing stock markets in these countries. Secondly, there is a need for developing a robust sentiment proxy on similar lines to the USA in the three countries. Thirdly, investment opportunities in the healthcare sector in these economies have been identified for potential investments by the investors. Fourthly, this study is the first study to investigate investors' sentiments in these three fast-emerging economies to attract investments in the Health Sector and Growth in the backdrop of UN's 2030 SDG 3 and SDG 8 targets to be achieved by these economies.
本文通过提出以下问题，构建了投资者情绪模型（IS），以吸引对新兴市场（如印度、中国大陆和阿联酋）医疗保健行业及增长的投资：这三个市场有哪些具体的医疗保健行业机会？美国投资者情绪是否是这三个经济体中投资者情绪的关键预测指标？宏观经济和社会文化因素在预测这些市场的投资者情绪方面有多重要？经济危机和大流行事件在预测这些市场的投资者情绪方面有多重要？就美国投资者情绪而言，在预测这三个国家的投资者情绪时是否存在同期关系？如果存在，美国投资者情绪影响的幅度在这三个国家的投资者情绪中是否一致？人工神经网络（ANN）模型应用于2003年1月至2020年12月的每周时间序列数据，以捕捉这些新兴经济体中投资者决策过程中的行为因素。实证结果证实了人工神经网络框架在捕捉投资者认知行为方面优于传统逻辑模型。健康预测指标——当前卫生支出占GDP的百分比、美国投资者情绪预测指标——利差，以及宏观因素——GDP年度增长率，是这三个经济体中对新兴市场投资者情绪行为产生积极影响的共同预测指标。美国（标准普尔500）回报率是这三个经济体中唯一对新兴市场投资者情绪行为产生负面影响的共同预测指标。然而，正负影响的幅度因国家而异，这表明这三个经济体各自具有独特、多样的社会经济、文化和市场特征。研究结果有四个关键意义：第一，美国市场情绪是影响这些国家股票市场的一个重要因素。第二，有必要在这三个国家开发与美国类似的强大情绪代理指标。第三，已确定这些经济体医疗保健行业的投资机会，可供投资者进行潜在投资。第四，本研究是第一项在联合国2030年可持续发展目标3和目标8的背景下调查这三个快速崛起经济体中投资者情绪，以吸引对医疗保健行业及增长投资的研究。
