Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen, 361005, China.
Institute of Marine Sciences, Shantou University, Shantou, 515063, China.
Sci Rep. 2022 Jul 7;12(1):11495. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-15774-7.
Mangrove forests are valuable intertidal ecosystems that provide coastline protection, biodiversity maintenance, and carbon sequestration. However, their survival is under severe threat from rapidly rising sea levels. In this study, we aimed to investigate the changes in the area of the Dongzhaigang mangrove in China since the 1950s and causes of these changes using literature and remote sensing data. The impact of historical and future sea level rise (SLR) on the mangroves was analyzed using remote sensing data and climate model data under the low, intermediate, and very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). The area of the mangrove forests decreased from 3416 to 1711 hm during 1956-1988 and remained constant at 1711 hm after the 1990s, owing to anthropogenic disturbances such as reclamation and aquaculture before the 1980s and the protection of nature reserve establishment after the 1990s, respectively. Under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, SLR is expected to cause > 26% of the mangroves to disappear by 2100, whereas under RCP 2.6, only 17% of the mangroves will likely be lost. Biological measures such as reestablishment of ponds as mangrove forests, afforestation, and biological embankment for sediment trapping in coastal wetlands are recommended to enhance the resilience of mangroves to SLR.
红树林是具有重要价值的潮间带生态系统，为海岸线提供保护、维护生物多样性并固碳。然而，它们的生存正受到海平面快速上升的严重威胁。本研究旨在利用文献和遥感数据，调查自 20 世纪 50 年代以来中国东寨港红树林的面积变化及其变化原因。利用遥感数据和气候模型数据，在低、中、高温室气体排放情景（代表性浓度路径（RCPs）2.6、4.5 和 8.5）下，分析历史和未来海平面上升（SLR）对红树林的影响。20 世纪 80 年代以前，由于围垦和水产养殖等人为干扰，以及 90 年代以后自然保护区的建立保护，红树林的面积从 1956-1988 年的 3416 公顷减少到 1711 公顷，此后一直保持在 1711 公顷。在 RCPs 4.5 和 8.5 下，预计到 2100 年，SLR 将导致超过 26%的红树林消失，而在 RCP 2.6 下，红树林可能只有 17%会消失。建议采取生物措施，如重新建立池塘作为红树林、造林和生物堤，以增强红树林对 SLR 的适应能力。
