Department of Mathematics, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia.
Comput Math Methods Med. 2022 Jun 28;2022:1135452. doi: 10.1155/2022/1135452. eCollection 2022.
Malaria has produced health issues in many parts of the world. One of the reason is due to the recurrence phenomenon, which can happen years after the main infection has appeared in the human body. Furthermore, the fumigation intervention, which has become a major worry in several regions of the world, has yielded unsatisfactory results, as seen by the high number of cases reported each year in several African countries. We present a novel mathematical model that integrates tafenoquine treatments to prevent relapse in the human population and saturation fumigation to control mosquito populations in this study. The endemic threshold, also known as the basic reproduction number, is calculated analytically, as is the existence and local stability of the equilibrium points. Through careful investigation, we discovered that the malaria-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than one and unstable if it is greater than one. According to the sensitivity analysis, the utilization of tafenoquine treatment is inversely proportional to the basic reproduction number. Although our model never exhibits a backward bifurcation at the basic reproduction number equal to one, we have demonstrated that it is possible; when the basic reproduction number is greater than one, two stable malaria-endemic equilibrium can exist. As a result, when the basic reproduction number is more than one, the final state will be determined by the initial condition of the population. As a result, enormous temporal fumigation can shift the stability of our malaria model from a big endemic size to a smaller endemic size, which is more advantageous in terms of the malaria prevention strategy. Despite the fact that this is not a case study, the numerical results presented in this article are intended to support any theoretical analysis of current malaria eradication tactics in the field.
疟疾在世界许多地区造成了健康问题。其中一个原因是由于复发现象,这种现象可能在人体主要感染后数年发生。此外,熏蒸干预已成为世界上几个地区的主要关注点,但收效甚微,每年在几个非洲国家报告的病例数量居高不下。在本研究中,我们提出了一种新的数学模型,该模型将特非那喹治疗与饱和熏蒸相结合,以预防人群复发并控制蚊群。计算了地方病阈值,即基本再生数,并分析了平衡点的存在性和局部稳定性。通过仔细调查,我们发现如果基本再生数小于一,那么无疟疾平衡点是局部渐近稳定的,如果基本再生数大于一,那么平衡点是不稳定的。根据敏感性分析,特非那喹治疗的利用与基本再生数成反比。虽然我们的模型在基本再生数等于一时从未表现出过向后分歧,但我们已经证明这是可能的;当基本再生数大于一时,两个稳定的疟疾地方病平衡点可以存在。因此,当基本再生数大于一时,最终状态将由人口的初始条件决定。因此,大量的时间熏蒸可以将我们的疟疾模型的稳定性从大的地方病大小转移到更小的地方病大小,这在疟疾预防策略方面更有利。尽管这不是一个案例研究,但本文提出的数值结果旨在支持对当前疟疾根除策略的任何理论分析。