Ratna Rajya Laxmi Campus, Tribhuvan University, KTM, Nepal.
Padma Kanya Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan University, KTM, Nepal.
J Biol Dyn. 2022 Dec;16(1):528-564. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2096935.
The cross-border mobility of malaria cases poses an obstacle to malaria elimination programmes in many countries, including Nepal. Here, we develop a novel mathematical model to study how the imported malaria cases through the Nepal-India open-border affect the Nepal government's goal of eliminating malaria by 2026. Mathematical analyses and numerical simulations of our model, validated by malaria case data from Nepal, indicate that eliminating malaria from Nepal is possible if strategies promoting the absence of cross-border mobility, complete protection of transmission abroad, or strict border screening and isolation are implemented. For each strategy, we establish the conditions for the elimination of malaria. We further use our model to identify the control strategies that can help maintain a low endemic level. Our results show that the ideal control strategies should be designed according to the average mosquito biting rates that may depend on the location and season.
跨境疟疾病例的流动给包括尼泊尔在内的许多国家的疟疾消除规划带来了障碍。在这里，我们开发了一种新的数学模型来研究通过尼泊尔-印度开放边境输入的疟疾病例如何影响尼泊尔政府在 2026 年前消除疟疾的目标。我们的模型的数学分析和数值模拟，通过尼泊尔的疟疾病例数据进行了验证，表明如果实施促进无跨境流动、完全保护国外传播、或严格边境筛查和隔离的策略，就有可能从尼泊尔消除疟疾。对于每种策略，我们都确定了消除疟疾的条件。我们还利用我们的模型来确定有助于维持低流行水平的控制策略。我们的研究结果表明，理想的控制策略应根据可能取决于位置和季节的平均蚊虫叮咬率来设计。
