Department of Geography, Faculty of Economics, Management & Social sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Dec;29(59):88644-88662. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-21951-y. Epub 2022 Jul 14.
The purpose of the study is to predict drought changes in Dariun, Fars Province, and their impact on water and soil quality. To prepare drought, water, and soil quality zoning maps, Landsat satellite images and the kriging method were used. The fuzzy maps and weights for each parameter were then determined using fuzzy and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methods. Additionally, cellular automata (CA)-Markov chains were used in order to predict the impact of drought changes on water and soil quality. Using the fuzzy-AHP method, water quality and soil fertility in 2020 were lower compared to previous years, mainly because of land use changes that increased pollution. Based on results of the Markov and CA-Markov chains, approximately 31% of the region will have very poor levels of soil fertility and water quality in 2050. Further, based on remote sensing indicators, it is determined that about 25% of the region will be at high risk of drought in 2050. Thus, if adequate management of the region is not done, the possibility of living in these areas may diminish in the coming years due to drought and deteriorated water and soil quality.
本研究旨在预测法尔斯省达里安的干旱变化及其对水土质量的影响。为了准备干旱、水和土壤质量分区图，使用了 Landsat 卫星图像和克里金法。然后，使用模糊和层次分析法（AHP）方法确定每个参数的模糊图和权重。此外，为了预测干旱变化对水和土壤质量的影响，还使用了元胞自动机（CA）-马尔可夫链。使用模糊-AHP 方法，与前几年相比，2020 年的水质和土壤肥力较低，主要是由于土地利用变化增加了污染。根据马尔可夫和 CA-马尔可夫链的结果，到 2050 年，该地区约有 31%的地区的土壤肥力和水质将非常差。此外，根据遥感指标，到 2050 年，该地区约有 25%的地区将处于高度干旱风险之中。因此，如果不对该地区进行适当的管理，由于干旱和恶化的水和土壤质量，未来几年在这些地区生活的可能性可能会降低。
