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用于预测献血者体内铁蛋白和血红蛋白水平的计算模型。

A computational model for prediction of ferritin and haemoglobin levels in blood donors.

机构信息

Donor Medicine, Sanquin Blood Bank, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Donor Medicine Research - Donor Studies, Sanquin Research, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

出版信息

Br J Haematol. 2022 Oct;199(1):143-152. doi: 10.1111/bjh.18367. Epub 2022 Jul 19.

DOI:10.1111/bjh.18367
PMID:35855538
Abstract

Blood donors are at risk of iron deficiency anaemia. While this risk is decreased through ferritin-based deferral, ideally ferritin monitoring should also aid in optimising donation frequencies. We extended an existing model of haemoglobin (Hb) synthesis with iron homeostasis and validated the model on a cohort of 300 new donors whose ferritin levels were measured from stored blood samples collected over a 2-year period. We then used the donor's gender, body weight, height, and baseline Hb and ferritin levels to predict subsequent Hb and ferritin levels. The prediction error was within measurement variability in 88% of Hb level predictions and 64% of ferritin level predictions. A sensitivity analysis of the model revealed that baseline ferritin level was the most important in predicting future ferritin levels. Finally, we used the model to calculate the annual donation frequency at which donors would keep their ferritin level >15 ng/ml when measured after donating for 2 years. The mean annual donation frequency would then be 1.9 for women and 4.1 for men. The computational model, requiring baseline values only, can predict future Hb and ferritin levels remarkably well. This enables determination of optimal donation frequencies for individual donors at the start of their donation career.

摘要

献血者有患缺铁性贫血的风险。虽然通过基于铁蛋白的延期可以降低这种风险,但理想情况下,铁蛋白监测也应该有助于优化献血频率。我们用铁稳态扩展了现有的血红蛋白(Hb)合成模型,并在一个由 300 名新献血者组成的队列上验证了该模型,这些献血者的铁蛋白水平是通过在 2 年期间收集的储存血样测量的。然后,我们使用献血者的性别、体重、身高以及基线 Hb 和铁蛋白水平来预测随后的 Hb 和铁蛋白水平。在 88%的 Hb 水平预测和 64%的铁蛋白水平预测中,预测误差在测量变异性范围内。对模型的敏感性分析表明,基线铁蛋白水平是预测未来铁蛋白水平的最重要因素。最后,我们使用该模型计算了献血者在连续献血 2 年后测量铁蛋白水平>15ng/ml 时的年献血频率。那么女性的平均年献血频率将为 1.9,男性为 4.1。这个仅需要基线值的计算模型可以很好地预测未来的 Hb 和铁蛋白水平。这可以在献血者开始献血生涯时确定每个献血者的最佳献血频率。

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