M Ferreira Claudio, Vieites Yan, Goldszmidt Rafael, B Andrade Eduardo
Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration, Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV-EBAPE), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Transfusion. 2022 Aug;62(8):1583-1593. doi: 10.1111/trf.17025. Epub 2022 Jul 20.
Previous studies that describe the negative association between temporary deferrals and donor return rates commonly come from settings where mechanisms are in place to win back lapsing donors. There is little evidence on the size and prevalence of this negative association in settings with no such retention activities.
We use data from more than 2 million donation attempts made at a blood collection agency in Brazil over a 26-year period. We describe the distribution of deferrals across donor demographic and behavioral characteristics, and estimate multivariate survival analysis models with matched samples to measure the impact of deferrals on return rates. We control for sex, race, age, education, donation type, number of previous attempts, previous donations, and previous deferrals. We test for heterogeneous effects in interaction models with selected donor demographic and behavioral characteristics.
Temporary deferrals were associated with a 50% decrease in the likelihood of return. Although the effect was observed for all population subgroups and across the full length of the dataset, it varied in magnitude. The influence of deferrals was more negative among older donors and those reporting replacement motives, and less negative among more educated donors and those with a previous donation.
We found that temporary deferrals meaningfully harm donor careers in a setting where specific retention activities are absent. Although the effects are widespread across the population and persistent in time, there are also heterogeneities, which must be considered when designing interventions targeted at wining-back specific groups of deferred donors.
以往描述临时延期与献血者回访率之间负相关关系的研究通常来自于存在挽回流失献血者机制的环境。在没有此类留存活动的环境中，关于这种负相关关系的规模和普遍性的证据很少。
我们使用了巴西一家采血机构在26年期间超过200万次献血尝试的数据。我们描述了延期在献血者人口统计学和行为特征方面的分布情况，并使用匹配样本估计多变量生存分析模型，以衡量延期对回访率的影响。我们控制了性别、种族、年龄、教育程度、献血类型、以往尝试次数、以往献血情况和以往延期情况。我们在与选定的献血者人口统计学和行为特征的交互模型中测试了异质性影响。
临时延期与回访可能性降低50%相关。尽管在所有人群亚组和整个数据集期间都观察到了这种影响，但其程度有所不同。延期的影响在年长的献血者和那些表示有替代动机的献血者中更为负面，而在受教育程度较高的献血者和有过献血经历的献血者中则不那么负面。
我们发现，在没有特定留存活动的环境中，临时延期会对献血者的献血生涯产生重大损害。尽管这种影响在人群中普遍存在且持续存在，但也存在异质性，在设计针对挽回特定延期献血者群体的干预措施时必须予以考虑。
