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通过两层模式缩放模拟海洋动力海平面

Emulating Ocean Dynamic Sea Level by Two-Layer Pattern Scaling.

作者信息

Yuan Jiacan, Kopp Robert E

机构信息

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan University Shanghai China.

Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Rutgers University New Brunswick NJ USA.

出版信息

J Adv Model Earth Syst. 2021 Mar;13(3):e2020MS002323. doi: 10.1029/2020MS002323. Epub 2021 Mar 2.

DOI:10.1029/2020MS002323
PMID:35860209
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9285532/
Abstract

Ocean dynamic sea level (DSL) change is a key driver of relative sea level (RSL) change. Projections of DSL change are generally obtained from simulations using atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs). Here, we develop a two-layer climate emulator to interpolate between emission scenarios simulated with GCMs and extend projections beyond the time horizon of available simulations. This emulator captures the evolution of DSL changes in corresponding GCMs, especially over middle and low latitudes. Compared with an emulator using univariate pattern scaling, the two-layer emulator more accurately reflects GCM behavior and captures non-linearities and non-stationarity in the relationship between DSL and global-mean warming, with a reduction in global-averaged error during 2271-2290 of 36%, 24%, and 34% in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Using the emulator, we develop a probabilistic ensemble of DSL projections through 2300 for four scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3-7.0. The magnitude and uncertainty of projected DSL changes decrease from the high-to the low-emission scenarios, indicating a reduced DSL rise hazard in low- and moderate-emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) compared to the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and RCP8.5).

摘要

海洋动力海平面（DSL）变化是相对海平面（RSL）变化的关键驱动因素。DSL变化的预测通常通过使用大气-海洋环流模型（GCMs）的模拟获得。在此，我们开发了一个两层气候模拟器，用于在GCMs模拟的排放情景之间进行插值，并将预测扩展到现有模拟的时间范围之外。该模拟器捕捉了相应GCMs中DSL变化的演变，特别是在中低纬度地区。与使用单变量模式缩放的模拟器相比，两层模拟器更准确地反映了GCM行为，并捕捉了DSL与全球平均变暖之间关系的非线性和非平稳性，在2271 - 2290年期间，RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5的全球平均误差分别降低了36%、24%和34%。使用该模拟器，我们针对四种情景开发了到2300年的DSL预测概率集合：代表性浓度路径（RCP）2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 8.5和共享社会经济路径（SSP）3 - 7.0。预测的DSL变化的幅度和不确定性从高排放情景到低排放情景逐渐降低，这表明与高排放情景（SSP3 - 7.0和RCP8.5）相比，低排放和中等排放情景（RCP2.6和RCP4.5）中DSL上升的危害较小。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dd3/9285532/c3de556bbad7/JAME-13-0-g002.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dd3/9285532/c3de556bbad7/JAME-13-0-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dd3/9285532/b613399f193a/JAME-13-0-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dd3/9285532/70f20ffbcdcd/JAME-13-0-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dd3/9285532/dade9629bbe0/JAME-13-0-g005.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dd3/9285532/c3de556bbad7/JAME-13-0-g002.jpg

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