International School of Medicine, Istanbul Medipol University, Göztepe Mah, Atatürk Cd. No:40, Beykoz, Istanbul 34810, Turkey.
International School of Medicine, Istanbul Medipol University, Göztepe Mah, Atatürk Cd. No:40, Beykoz, Istanbul 34810, Turkey.
Eur J Intern Med. 2022 Nov;105:8-14. doi: 10.1016/j.ejim.2022.07.009. Epub 2022 Jul 18.
Infectious diseases are known to act in both predictable and unpredictable ways, which leads to the notions of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. Emerging diseases with their disastrous consequences might be surprising and unpredictable, but they could be foreseen. For instance, some emerging diseases and recently the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were the reason for papers published by the World Health Organization (WHO) and other researchers addressing the likely pathogens causing future outbreaks, according to the reports of the WHO in 2016 and 2018. Although it might seem like a wisdom in retrospect, several studies had already indicated possible future outbreaks caused by coronaviruses. Announcements, which may be viewed as "warnings," appeared since the emergence of the first coronavirus-related outbreak caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in the winter of 2002-2003 and a later outbreak caused by the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012-2013. Therefore, we were curious to review the medical literature prior to the COVID-19 pandemic with an aim to enumerate and evaluate studies addressing and warning against future outbreaks, and surprisingly pandemics, of members of coronaviruses. Interestingly, we found numerous studies that correctly predicted the current pandemic of COVID-19. While this part is highly interesting, how authorities reacted and prepared for warnings, if any, and how will they get prepared for the next warnings are our main messages. Taking these points into serious consideration will certainly aid in analyzing reports regarding possible future outbreaks as well as in developing various strategies for prevention and coping with such epidemics.
传染病的表现方式既有可预测的，也有不可预测的，这导致了新发传染病和再发传染病的概念的出现。具有灾难性后果的新发传染病可能是令人惊讶和不可预测的，但它们是可以预见的。例如，一些新发传染病，最近的 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）是世界卫生组织（WHO）和其他研究人员发表的论文的原因，这些论文涉及可能导致未来爆发的病原体，这是根据世卫组织在 2016 年和 2018 年的报告。尽管这在事后看来似乎是一种智慧，但已有几项研究已经表明，冠状病毒可能导致未来的爆发。自 2002-2003 年冬季严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒（SARS-CoV）引起的首例冠状病毒相关爆发和 2012-2013 年中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒（MERS-CoV）引起的后来爆发以来，就已经发布了可能被视为“警告”的公告。因此，我们很好奇地回顾了 COVID-19 大流行之前的医学文献，目的是列举和评估针对冠状病毒未来爆发和令人惊讶的大流行的研究，并对其进行评估。有趣的是，我们发现了许多研究正确预测了当前的 COVID-19 大流行。虽然这一部分非常有趣，但我们主要关注的是当局对警告的反应和准备（如果有的话），以及他们将如何为下一次警告做好准备。认真考虑这些要点肯定有助于分析关于未来可能爆发的报告，并制定各种预防和应对此类流行病的策略。
