Hou Juan-Juan, Liu Lan-Cui, Dong Zheng-Yi, Wang Zhen, Yu Shi-Wei, Zhang Jiu-Tian
Business School, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Dec;29(60):90272-90289. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-21813-7. Epub 2022 Jul 22.
Intensifying climate change significantly impacts residential electricity consumption, especially in developing countries, such as China, that are experiencing rapid income growth. By combining meteorological and monthly household consumption survey data, this study explores the response function of residential electricity consumption to temperature in China from a micro perspective. Future residential electricity demands and related CO emissions are then forecast under different climate scenarios. Overall, the response function is U-shaped, and one additional day above 34 °C will increase monthly residential electricity consumption by 2.11%. Global warming will more likely increase the electricity burden on low-income groups. There will be notable seasonal changes in electricity demand in the future, and the largest increase will occur in August. The total demand for residential electricity caused by temperature change will show a fluctuating growth trend, from 0.8% and 1% in 2025 to 2% and 2.9% in 2060 under the RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively; meanwhile, this demand will be accompanied by a cumulative increase in carbon dioxide emissions.
气候变化加剧对居民用电产生了重大影响，尤其是在像中国这样正经历快速收入增长的发展中国家。通过结合气象数据和月度家庭消费调查数据，本研究从微观角度探讨了中国居民用电对温度的响应函数。然后在不同气候情景下预测未来居民用电需求及相关碳排放。总体而言，响应函数呈U形，气温高于34摄氏度的天数每增加一天，居民月用电量将增加2.11%。全球变暖更有可能增加低收入群体的用电负担。未来电力需求将出现显著的季节性变化，最大增幅将出现在8月。在RCP4.5情景和RCP8.5情景下，温度变化导致的居民用电总需求将呈现波动增长趋势，分别从2025年的0.8%和1%增长至2060年的2%和2.9%；与此同时，这一需求将伴随着二氧化碳排放量的累积增加。
