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探究气温上升与家庭用电量之间的相关性:中国的实证分析

Exploring the correlation between rising temperature and household electricity consumption: An empirical analysis in China.

作者信息

Su Yong, Ullah Kaleem

机构信息

School of History, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, 830046, China.

National University of Sciences & Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 May 3;10(10):e30130. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e30130. eCollection 2024 May 30.

Abstract

This study investigates the nexus between rising temperatures and household energy consumption using data from respondents' electricity bills in the "China Residential Energy Consumption Survey." Our analysis reveals a significant correlation, with an 8.9 % increase in yearly energy consumption observed when the average temperature exceeds 32 °C. Additionally, we explore potential shifts in power usage due to global warming by integrating baseline estimates with daily temperature forecasts from eight contemporary climate models. Our findings project alarming trends: without interventions to curb greenhouse gas emissions, home electricity consumption could surge by 9.59-30.09 % in the medium term and by 9.77-47.70 % in the long run. By shedding light on these critical connections, our research underscores the urgent need for policy actions to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on energy consumption patterns.

摘要

本研究利用“中国居民能源消费调查”中受访者电费数据,调查气温上升与家庭能源消费之间的关系。我们的分析揭示了显著的相关性,当平均气温超过32°C时,年能源消费量增长8.9%。此外,我们通过将基线估计与八个当代气候模型的每日气温预测相结合,探索全球变暖导致的电力使用潜在变化。我们的研究结果呈现出惊人的趋势:如果不采取干预措施抑制温室气体排放,中期家庭用电量可能激增9.59%至30.09%,长期则可能激增9.77%至47.70%。通过揭示这些关键联系,我们的研究强调了采取政策行动以减轻气候变化对能源消费模式不利影响的迫切需求。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/79dc/11126790/b5cd84103ac0/gr1.jpg

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