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给儿童接种新冠疫苗对于保护学校和社区至关重要。

Vaccinating children against COVID-19 is crucial to protect schools and communities.

作者信息

Rosenstrom Erik T, Mele Jessica, Ivy Julie S, Mayorga Maria E, Patel Mehul D, Lich Kristen Hassmiller, Delamater Paul L, Smith Raymond L, Swann Julie L

机构信息

Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27606, USA.

Department of Emergency Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA.

出版信息

PNAS Nexus. 2022 Jun 8;1(3):pgac081. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac081. eCollection 2022 Jul.

Abstract

To evaluate the joint impact of childhood vaccination rates and school masking policies on community transmission and severe outcomes due to COVID-19, we utilized a stochastic, agent-based simulation of North Carolina to test 24 health policy scenarios. In these scenarios, we varied the childhood (ages 5 to 19) vaccination rate relative to the adult's (ages 20 to 64) vaccination rate and the masking relaxation policies in schools. We measured the overall incidence of disease, COVID-19-related hospitalization, and mortality from 2021 July 1 to 2023 July 1. Our simulation estimates that removing all masks in schools in January 2022 could lead to a 31% to 45%, 23% to 35%, and 13% to 19% increase in cumulative infections for ages 5 to 9, 10 to 19, and the total population, respectively, depending on the childhood vaccination rate. Additionally, achieving a childhood vaccine uptake rate of 50% of adults could lead to a 31% to 39% reduction in peak hospitalizations overall masking scenarios compared with not vaccinating this group. Finally, our simulation estimates that increasing vaccination uptake for the entire eligible population can reduce peak hospitalizations in 2022 by an average of 83% and 87% across all masking scenarios compared to the scenarios where no children are vaccinated. Our simulation suggests that high vaccination uptake among both children and adults is necessary to mitigate the increase in infections from mask removal in schools and workplaces.

摘要

为评估儿童疫苗接种率和学校口罩政策对新冠病毒社区传播及严重后果的联合影响,我们利用了一个基于主体的北卡罗来纳州随机模拟模型来测试24种卫生政策情景。在这些情景中,我们改变了儿童(5至19岁)与成人(20至64岁)的疫苗接种率,以及学校的口罩放宽政策。我们测量了2021年7月1日至2023年7月1日期间疾病的总体发病率、与新冠病毒相关的住院率和死亡率。我们的模拟估计,根据儿童疫苗接种率,2022年1月在学校取消所有口罩可能导致5至9岁、10至19岁以及总人口的累计感染分别增加31%至45%、23%至35%和13%至19%。此外,与未对该群体进行疫苗接种相比,儿童疫苗接种率达到成人的50%可使总体口罩情景下的住院峰值降低31%至39%。最后,我们的模拟估计,与没有儿童接种疫苗的情景相比,提高所有符合条件人群的疫苗接种率可使2022年的住院峰值在所有口罩情景下平均降低83%和87%。我们的模拟表明,儿童和成人都需要高疫苗接种率,以减轻学校和工作场所取消口罩导致的感染增加。

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