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探讨影响城市快速路碰撞严重程度的因素:基于碰撞数据的研究。

Exploring Influential Factors Affecting the Severity of Urban Expressway Collisions: A Study Based on Collision Data.

机构信息

School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 102206, China.

Beihang Hangzhou Innovation Institute Yuhang, Hangzhou 310023, China.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jul 8;19(14):8362. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19148362.

Abstract

When traffic collisions occur on urban expressways, the consequences, including injuries, the loss of lives, and damage to properties, are more serious. However, the existing research on the severity of expressway traffic collisions has not been deeply explored. The purpose of this research was to investigate how various factors affect the severity of urban expressway collisions. The severity of urban expressway collisions was set as the dependent variable, which could be divided into three categories: slight collisions, severe collisions, and fatal collisions. Ten variables, including individual characteristics, collision characteristics, and road environment conditions, were selected as independent factors. Based on 975 valid urban expressway collisions, an ordered logistic regression model was established to evaluate the impacts of influence factors on the severity of these crashes. The results show that gender, collision modality, road pavement conditions, road surface conditions, and visibility are significant factors that affect the severity of urban expressway collisions. Females were more likely to be involved in more severe urban expressway collisions than males. For collisions involving pedestrians and non-motorized vehicles, the risk of more severe injury was 7.508 times higher than that associated with vehicle-vehicle collisions. The probability of more severe collisions on urban expressways with poor pavement conditions and wet surface conditions is greater than that on urban expressways with good pavement conditions and dry surface conditions. In addition, as visibility increases, the probability of more severe collisions on urban expressways gradually decreases. These results provide more effective strategies to reduce casualties as a result of urban expressway collisions.

摘要

当城市高速公路发生交通事故时,后果包括受伤、生命损失和财产损失更加严重。然而,现有的高速公路交通事故严重程度研究并没有深入探讨。本研究旨在探讨各种因素如何影响城市高速公路碰撞的严重程度。城市高速公路碰撞的严重程度被设定为因变量,可以分为轻微碰撞、严重碰撞和致命碰撞三类。选择了十个变量,包括个人特征、碰撞特征和道路环境条件,作为独立因素。基于 975 起有效的城市高速公路碰撞事故,建立了有序逻辑回归模型,以评估影响因素对这些碰撞严重程度的影响。结果表明,性别、碰撞方式、路面状况、路面状况和能见度是影响城市高速公路碰撞严重程度的显著因素。女性比男性更容易卷入更严重的城市高速公路碰撞事故。对于涉及行人和非机动车辆的碰撞,更严重伤害的风险是车辆与车辆碰撞的 7.508 倍。路面状况较差和路面湿滑的城市高速公路发生更严重碰撞的概率大于路面状况良好和干燥的城市高速公路。此外,随着能见度的提高,城市高速公路发生更严重碰撞的概率逐渐降低。这些结果提供了更有效的策略,以减少城市高速公路碰撞造成的人员伤亡。

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