Assessment of the spatiotemporal risk of avian influenza between waterfowl and poultry farms during the annual cycle: A spatial prediction study focused on seasonal distribution changes in resident waterfowl in South Korea.

Previous studies and efforts to prevent and manage avian influenza (AI) outbreaks have mainly focused on the wintering season. However, outbreaks of AI have been reported in the summer, including the breeding season of waterfowl. Additionally, the spatial distribution of waterfowl can easily change during the annual cycle due to their life-cycle traits and the presence of both migrants and residents in the population. Thus, we assessed the spatiotemporal variation in AI exposure risk in poultry due to spatial distribution changes in three duck species included in both major residents and wintering migrants in South Korea, the mandarin, mallard and spot-billed duck, during wintering (October-March), breeding (April-June) and whole annual seasons. To estimate seasonal ecological niche variations among the three duck species, we applied pairwise ecological niche analysis using the Pianka index. Subsequently, seasonal distribution models were projected by overlaying the monthly ranges estimated by the maximum entropy model. Finally, we overlaid each seasonal distribution range onto a poultry distribution map of South Korea. We found that the mandarin had less niche overlap with the mallard and spot-billed duck during the wintering season than during the breeding season, whereas the mallard had less niche overlap with the mandarin and spot-billed duck during the breeding season than during the wintering season. Breeding and annual distribution ranges of the mandarin and spot-billed duck, but not the mallard, were similar or even wider than their wintering ranges. Similarly, the mandarin and spot-billed duck showed more extensive overlap proportions between poultry and their distributional ranges during both the breeding and annual seasons than during the wintering season. These results suggest that potential AI exposure in poultry can occur more widely in the summer than in winter, depending on sympatry with the host duck species. Future studies considering the population density and variable pathogenicity of AI are required.