School of Statistics, Jilin University of Finance and Economics, Jingyue Street 3699, Changchun 130117, China.
School of Business and Management, Jilin University, Qianjin Street 2699, Changchun 130012, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jul 25;19(15):9016. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19159016.
Under the restriction of the national "double carbon" goal, how to realize the coordination between urbanization and low-carbon development in the Yellow River Basin is a problem worthy of attention. In this paper, a new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity evaluation index system is established to evaluate the new urbanization level and ecological carrying capacity of the Yellow River Basin. On this basis, the uncoordinated coupling level of new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin is measured by using the improved uncoordinated coupling model, and its temporal and spatial characteristics and internal impact mechanism are analyzed. The study shows that the new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity of the Yellow River Basin has a benign development trend as a whole. Shandong province belongs to the low-level uncoordinated coupling type; Gansu Province and Qinghai Province belong to the running-in uncoordinated type; and Shanxi Province, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Shaanxi Province, and the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region belong to the antagonistic uncoordinated coupling type. The uncoordinated coupling degree between new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin has a spatial interaction effect. It presents a low-level cluster centered on Shaanxi Province and Shandong Province and a high-level cluster centered on Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, and the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. From the perspective of the internal main impact mechanism, water resources have a two-way impact on the development of the two systems of new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity; the number of permanent residents and the level of scientific and technological investment have a one-way impact on the process of new urbanization; and the green coverage rate of built-up areas has a one-way impact on the development of ecological carrying capacity. The main contributions of this paper are as follows. First, the evaluation index system of new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity has been improved in combination with the new development concept. The evaluation of new urbanization by this index system is more in line with the current national requirements for high-quality development. Second, the impact of potential resources and human regulation has been added to the traditional ecological carrying capacity evaluation index system, and the evaluation of ecological carrying capacity by this index system is more in line with reality. Thirdly, taking the time effect into account, an improved uncoordinated coupling method is proposed. Using this method to evaluate the relationship between systems is conducive to bringing the dynamic relationship within the system into the evaluation system, which is more in line with the reality of system changes. Fourth, from the perspective of problem diagnosis, research on the relationship between new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity will help to find the internal mechanism that affects the coordinated development of new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin. This method is universal for exploring the internal influence mechanism of the relationship between systems.
在国家“双碳”目标的约束下，如何实现黄河流域城镇化与低碳发展的协调是一个值得关注的问题。本文构建了新的城镇化与生态承载力评价指标体系，对黄河流域的新城镇化水平和生态承载力进行评价。在此基础上，运用改进的非协调耦合模型测算了黄河流域新城镇化与生态承载力的非协调耦合水平，并分析了其时空特征和内部影响机制。研究表明，黄河流域新城镇化与生态承载力整体呈现良性发展态势。山东省属于低水平非协调耦合类型；甘肃省和青海省属于磨合型非协调耦合类型；山西省、内蒙古自治区、陕西省和宁夏回族自治区属于拮抗型非协调耦合类型。黄河流域新城镇化与生态承载力的非协调耦合程度具有空间互动效应。呈现以陕西省和山东省为中心的低水平集聚和以甘肃省、青海省和宁夏回族自治区为中心的高水平集聚。从内部主要影响机制来看，水资源对新城镇化和生态承载力两个系统的发展具有双向影响；常住人口数量和科技投入水平对新城镇化进程具有单向影响；建成区绿地率对生态承载力发展具有单向影响。本文的主要贡献如下：一是结合新发展理念，改进了新城镇化和生态承载力的评价指标体系。该指标体系对新城镇化的评价更符合当前国家对高质量发展的要求。二是在传统生态承载力评价指标体系中加入了潜在资源和人为调控的影响，使该指标体系对生态承载力的评价更符合实际情况。三是考虑时间效应，提出了改进的非协调耦合方法。采用这种方法评价系统之间的关系，有利于将系统内部的动态关系纳入评价体系，更符合系统变化的实际情况。四是从问题诊断的角度来看，研究新城镇化与生态承载力的关系有助于发现影响黄河流域新城镇化与生态承载力协调发展的内在机制。这种方法对于探索系统之间的内在影响机制具有普遍性。
