Contribution of the Technical Efficiency of Public Health Programs to National Trends and Regional Disparities in Unintentional Childhood Injury in Japan.

To achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, strengthening investments in health service inputs has been widely emphasized, but less attention has been paid to tackling variation in the technical efficiency of services. In this study, we estimated the technical efficiency of local public health programs for the prevention of unintentional childhood injury and explored its contribution to national trend changes and regional health disparities in Japan. Efficiency scores were estimated based on the Cobb-Douglas and translog production functions using a true fixed effects model in a stochastic frontier analysis to account for unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity across prefectures. Using public data sources, we compiled panel data from 2001 to 2017 for all 47 prefectures in Japan. We treated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as the output, coverage rates of public health programs as inputs, and caregivers' capacity and environmental factors as constraints. To investigate the contribution of efficiency to trend changes and disparities in output, we calculated the predicted DALYs with several measures of inefficiency scores (2001 average, yearly average, and prefecture-year-specific estimates). In the translog model, mean efficiency increased from 0.62 in 2001 to 0.85 in 2017. The efficiency gaps among prefectures narrowed until 2007 and then remained constant until 2017. Holding inefficiency score constant, inputs and constraints contributed to improvements in average DALYs and widened regional gaps. Improved efficiency over the years further contributed to improvements in average DALYs. Efficiency improvement in low-output regions and stagnated improvement in high-output regions offset the trend of widening regional health disparities. Similar results were obtained with the Cobb-Douglas model. Our results demonstrated that assessing the inputs, constraints, output, and technical efficiency of public health programs could provide policy leverage relevant to region-specific conditions and performance to achieve health promotion and equity.