A new nomogram for predicting lung metastasis in newly diagnosed endometrial carcinoma patients: A study based on SEER.

BACKGROUND

Lung metastasis (LM) is an independent risk factor for survival in patients with endometrial cancer (EC).

METHODS

We reviewed data on patients diagnosed with EC between 2010 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The independent predictors of LM in patients with EC were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A nomogram for predicting LM in patients with EC was developed, and the predictive model was evaluated using calibration and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that high grade; specific histological type; high tumor and node stages; larger tumor size; and liver, brain, and bone metastases were positively associated with LM risk. A new nomogram was developed by combining these factors to predict LM in patients newly diagnosed with EC. Internal and external verification of the calibration charts showed that the nomogram was well calibrated. The areas under the ROC curves for the training and validation cohorts were 0.924 and 0.913, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We performed a retrospective analysis of 42,073 patients with EC using the SEER database, established a new nomogram for predicting LM based on eight independent risk factors, and visualized the model using a nomogram for the first time.