Verma Shubha, Ghosh Sanhita, Boucher Olivier, Wang Rong, Menut Laurent
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur 721302, India.
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS/Sorbonne Université, 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France.
Sci Adv. 2022 Aug 5;8(31):eabo4093. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abo4093.
A large discrepancy between simulated and observed black carbon (BC) surface concentrations over the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) has so far limited our ability to assess the magnitude of BC health impacts in terms of population exposure, morbidity, and mortality. We evaluate these impacts using an integrated modeling framework, including successfully predicted BC concentrations. Population exposure to BC is notable, with more than 60 million people identified as living in hotspots of BC concentration (wintertime mean, >20 μg m). The attributable fraction of the total cardiovascular disease mortality (CVM) burden to BC exposures is 62% for the megacity. The semiurban area comprised about 49% of the total BC-attributable CVM burden over the IGP. More than 400,000 lives can potentially be saved from CVM annually by implementing prioritized emission reduction from the combustion of domestic biofuel in the semiurban area, diesel oil in transportation, and coal in thermal power plant and brick kiln industries in megacities.
在人口密集的印度-恒河平原（IGP），模拟的黑碳（BC）表面浓度与观测值之间存在巨大差异，这迄今为止限制了我们从人口暴露、发病率和死亡率方面评估BC对健康影响程度的能力。我们使用一个综合建模框架来评估这些影响，该框架包括成功预测的BC浓度。人口对BC的暴露很显著，超过6000万人被确定生活在BC浓度热点地区（冬季平均值，>20μg/m）。大城市中，BC暴露导致的心血管疾病总死亡率（CVM）负担的归因比例为62%。半城市地区约占IGP上BC归因的CVM总负担的49%。通过在半城市地区减少家用生物燃料燃烧、交通运输中的柴油以及大城市热电厂和砖窑行业的煤炭燃烧的优先排放，每年有可能从CVM中挽救超过40万人的生命。
