Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for Water Security, Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai, 519087, China; Water Security Research Institute, Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai, 519087, China; College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for Water Security, Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai, 519087, China; Water Security Research Institute, Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai, 519087, China.
J Environ Manage. 2022 Oct 15;320:115805. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115805. Epub 2022 Aug 3.
Water scarcity and water pollution problems are becoming increasingly serious in many regions of the world due to rapid socioeconomic development. Water resources environmental carrying capacity (WRECC), which embodies the attributes of social, economic, resource and environmental aspects, is usually considered as a significant metric to guide regional sustainable development. Most existing studies on WRECC mainly focus on conceptual discussions and evaluation methods, lacking a systematic insight into the theoretical connotations of WRECC and neglecting the interaction mechanisms within the WRECC system. Therefore, this study aims to propose a new WRECC evaluation method based on support and pressure theory to deeply reveal the state change and driving mechanisms of WRECC. Firstly, a WRECC evaluation system incorporating support and pressure is constructed and the WRECC performance is determined by both the support index and pressure index. Subsequently, the catastrophe progression method and the obstacle degree model are introduced to quantify the WRECC and identify the primary influencing factors. Lastly, the feasibility and validity of this methodology are verified through an empirical application in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). The results indicate that the WRECC of the GBA presents an upward trend from 2010 to 2019, shifting from a low-value load state to a low-value surplus state. Moreover, the WRECC performance varies significantly among cities in the GBA, especially for edge cities that generally exhibit higher support, pressure and WRECC indices than central cities. In addition, common obstacles that affect WRECC are total water resources, water resources per capita, water consumption per hectare for agriculture and proportion of the tertiary industry. Furthermore, this study reveals that the coupling relationship between support and pressure develops towards a positive direction, and water environment protection and economic development are the main drivers of WRECC development. This new proposed methodology can provide a theoretical reference for investigating regional WRECC and formulating appropriate sustainable development strategies.
由于快速的社会经济发展，世界上许多地区的水资源短缺和水污染问题日益严重。水资源环境承载力（WRECC）体现了社会、经济、资源和环境等多方面的属性，通常被认为是指导区域可持续发展的重要指标。大多数现有的 WRECC 研究主要集中在概念讨论和评价方法上，缺乏对 WRECC 理论内涵的系统深入了解，忽视了 WRECC 系统内部的相互作用机制。因此，本研究旨在提出一种基于支持和压力理论的新的 WRECC 评价方法，以深入揭示 WRECC 的状态变化和驱动机制。首先，构建了一个包含支持和压力的 WRECC 评价体系，通过支持指标和压力指标共同确定 WRECC 的表现。然后，引入了突变级数法和障碍度模型，对 WRECC 进行量化，并识别主要影响因素。最后，通过在粤港澳大湾区（GBA）的实证应用验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。结果表明，2010 年至 2019 年期间，GBA 的 WRECC 呈上升趋势，从低值负荷状态转变为低值盈余状态。此外，GBA 各城市的 WRECC 表现差异较大，特别是边缘城市的支撑、压力和 WRECC 指数普遍高于中心城市。此外，影响 WRECC 的常见障碍因素包括总水资源量、人均水资源量、农业每公顷用水量和第三产业比重。此外，本研究揭示了支撑与压力的耦合关系朝着积极的方向发展，水环境保护和经济发展是 WRECC 发展的主要驱动力。该新提出的方法可以为研究区域 WRECC 提供理论参考，并为制定适当的可持续发展战略提供依据。
