Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China.
College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Sep 1;19(17):10929. doi: 10.3390/ijerph191710929.
Rapid economic growth and social development in China have led to serious water pollution problems and water resource shortages, limiting the sustainable development that could support both the socio-economy and water resources carrying capacity (WRECC). However, the spatial heterogeneity and evolutionary characteristics of the coordination between the WRECC and economic development have not been adequately explored in China. In this study, we developed the support and pressure indicators of China's 30 provinces and then analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution and evolution characteristics of their WRECC by using the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. The main findings are shown in the following: (i) From a temporal perspective, there has been an overall upward trend in the WRECC to support human activities; however, the WRECC level is not high. Approximately 63.7% of provinces remain in an overloaded state, indicating that the support indicator of most provinces is smaller than the pressure indicator imposed by human social activities. (ii) There are significant spatial differences in the WRECC indicators across provinces. Provinces with low-level WRECCs are concentrated in central China but decrease significantly from the country's borders to its center. Eastern regions have a medium-level of WRECC with the greatest degree of regional difference, while western regions have a high-level of WRECC with the smallest degree of regional difference. The variation of WRECC is attributed to within-group differences in the three geographical regions in China. (iii) The factors that significantly impact the WRECC include population density, gross domestic product (GDP), temperature, urbanization, the added value of tertiary industry within the GDP, and R&D expenditures. GDP and R&D expenditures positively impact the WRECC, while the other four factors have different influences on the WRECC. (iv) The spatial distributions of driving factors show significant aggregation characteristics, with decreasing trends from the eastern to western regions and from the southern to northern regions. These findings present a comprehensive understanding of the current WRECC in China's provinces which can be used as a reference for realizing environmentally sustainable water development strategies under high-quality economic development.
中国经济的快速增长和社会发展导致了严重的水污染问题和水资源短缺，限制了支撑社会经济和水资源承载能力（WRECC）可持续发展的能力。然而，中国对 WRECC 与经济发展之间协调的空间异质性和演变特征尚未进行充分探讨。在本研究中，我们构建了中国 30 个省份的支撑和压力指标，然后利用地理加权回归（GTWR）模型分析了其 WRECC 的时空分布和演变特征。主要发现如下：（i）从时间角度来看，WRECC 对人类活动的支撑呈整体上升趋势；然而，WRECC 水平不高。约 63.7%的省份仍处于超载状态，表明大多数省份的支撑指标小于人类社会活动施加的压力指标。（ii）各省之间的 WRECC 指标存在显著的空间差异。低水平 WRECC 的省份集中在中部地区，但从中国边境向中心显著减少。东部地区具有中等水平的 WRECC，区域差异最大，而西部地区具有高水平的 WRECC，区域差异最小。WRECC 的变化归因于中国三个地理区域内的组内差异。（iii）显著影响 WRECC 的因素包括人口密度、国内生产总值（GDP）、温度、城市化、GDP 中第三产业的附加值和研发支出。GDP 和研发支出对 WRECC 有积极影响，而其他四个因素对 WRECC 有不同的影响。（iv）驱动因素的空间分布呈现出显著的聚集特征，从东部到西部、从南部到北部呈递减趋势。这些发现全面了解了中国各省当前的 WRECC，可以为在高质量经济发展下实现环境可持续的水资源发展战略提供参考。
