Zhai Ran, Tao Fulu, Chen Yi, Dai Huichao, Liu Zhiwu, Fu Bojie
Institute of Science and Technology, China Three Gorges Corporation, Beijing 100038, China.
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), 00790 Helsinki, Finland.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Nov 25;849:157928. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157928. Epub 2022 Aug 8.
Freshwater is an essential resource for human lives, agriculture, industry, and ecology. Future water supply, water withdrawal, and water security under the impacts of climate change and human interventions have been of key concern. Numerous studies have projected future changes in river runoff and surface water resources under climate change. However, the changes in the major water withdrawal components including agricultural irrigation water, industrial, domestic and ecological water withdrawal, as well as the balance between water supply and withdrawal, under the joint impacts of climate change and socio-economic development have been seldom investigated, especially at the basin and national scales. In this study, changes in surface water resources, agricultural irrigation water, industrial, domestic and ecological water withdrawal, as well as the balances between water supply and withdrawal, under the baseline climate (2006-2015), 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios (2106-2115) in the 10 major basins across China, were investigated by combining modelling and local census data. The results showed that water withdrawal exceeded water supply in the basins of Liao River, Northwest River, Hai River, Yellow River and Huai River in the baseline period. Under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, the shortage of water resources would aggravate in the above-mentioned basins and the Songhua River basin. And the surplus of water resources would reduce substantially in the basins of Yangtze River, Southeast River and Pearl River. Overall, the difference between water supply and water withdrawal was 435.88 billion m during the baseline period, and would be 261.84 and 218.39 billion m, respectively, under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. This study provides a comprehensive perspective on future water security in the 10 major basins across China, has important implications for water resources management and climate change adaptation.
淡水是人类生活、农业、工业和生态不可或缺的资源。气候变化和人类干预影响下的未来供水、取水和水安全一直是关键关注点。众多研究预测了气候变化下河流径流和地表水资源的未来变化。然而，气候变化和社会经济发展共同影响下，包括农业灌溉用水、工业、生活和生态用水取水在内的主要取水组成部分的变化，以及供水与取水之间的平衡，很少得到研究，尤其是在流域和国家尺度上。在本研究中，通过结合模型和当地普查数据，调查了中国10个主要流域在基准气候期（2006 - 2015年）、升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景（2106 - 2115年）下地表水资源、农业灌溉用水、工业、生活和生态用水取水以及供水与取水之间的平衡变化。结果表明，在基准期辽河、西江、海河、黄河和淮河等流域取水超过供水。在升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下，上述流域以及松花江流域水资源短缺将加剧。长江、东南诸河和珠江流域水资源盈余将大幅减少。总体而言，基准期供水与取水差值为4358.8亿立方米，在升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下，分别为2618.4亿立方米和2183.9亿立方米。本研究为中国10个主要流域未来水安全提供了全面视角，对水资源管理和气候变化适应具有重要意义。
