Kiparsky Michael, Joyce Brian, Purkey David, Young Charles
Wheeler Institute for Water Law & Policy, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America.
Stockholm Environment Institute, Davis, California, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2014 Jan 20;9(1):e84946. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0084946. eCollection 2014.
We present an integrated hydrology/water operations simulation model of the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California, using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform. The model represents hydrology as well as water operations, which together influence water supplied for agricultural, urban, and environmental uses. The model is developed for impacts assessment using scenarios for climate change and other drivers of water system behavior. In this paper, we describe the model structure, its representation of historical streamflow, agricultural and urban water demands, and water operations. We describe projected impacts of climate change on hydrology and water supply to the major irrigation districts in the area, using uniform 2 °C, 4 °C, and 6 °C increases applied to climate inputs from the calibration period. Consistent with other studies, we find that the timing of hydrology shifts earlier in the water year in response to temperature warming (5-21 days). The integrated agricultural model responds with increased water demands 2 °C (1.4-2.0%), 4 °C (2.8-3.9%), and 6 °C (4.2-5.8%). In this sensitivity analysis, the combination of altered hydrology and increased demands results in decreased reliability of surface water supplied for agricultural purposes, with modeled quantity-based reliability metrics decreasing from a range of 0.84-0.90 under historical conditions to 0.75-0.79 under 6 °C warming scenario.
我们利用水评价与规划（WEAP）平台，展示了加利福尼亚州图奥勒米河和默塞德河流域的综合水文/水资源运营模拟模型。该模型既体现了水文情况，也反映了水资源运营情况，二者共同影响着农业、城市和环境用水的供应。该模型是为利用气候变化情景及水系统行为的其他驱动因素进行影响评估而开发的。在本文中，我们描述了模型结构、其对历史径流、农业和城市用水需求以及水资源运营的呈现。我们使用在校准期气候输入基础上统一增加2℃、4℃和6℃的方法，描述了气候变化对该地区主要灌溉区水文和供水的预计影响。与其他研究一致，我们发现，随着温度升高（5 - 21天），水文变化的时间在水年中提前。综合农业模型显示，在2℃（1.4 - 2.0%）、4℃（2.8 - 3.9%）和6℃（4.2 - 5.8%）升温情况下用水需求增加。在这项敏感性分析中，水文变化和需求增加共同导致农业地表水供应可靠性下降，基于水量的模拟可靠性指标从历史条件下的0.84 - 0.90降至6℃升温情景下的0.75 - 0.79。
