School of Public Administration, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China.
School of Public Administration and Emergency Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Aug 3;19(15):9513. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19159513.
As one of the three major engines of economic growth in China, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration has become one of the regions with the highest energy consumption intensity. To investigate the dynamic relationships between scientific and technological innovation, industrial structure advancement and carbon footprints, panel data in BTH from 2006 to 2019 was selected, and a Panel Vector Auto-Regressive (PVAR) model was established to conduct an empirical study. The conclusions show that there is a causal relationship between the industrial structure advancement and carbon footprints, and the influence of each on the other is significant. The impact of scientific and technological innovation on carbon footprints has a "rebound effect". Scientific and technological innovation can accelerate the process of industrial structure advancement. Carbon footprints have a significant backward forcing effect on both industrial structure advancement and scientific and technological innovation, with impact coefficients of 0.0671 and 0.2120, respectively. Compared with scientific and technological innovation, the industrial structure advancement has a greater impact on carbon footprints, with a variance contribution of 25.4%. The research findings are conducive to providing policy support for the coordinated development of BTH and promoting the realization of the Double Carbon goal.
作为中国经济增长的三大引擎之一，京津冀城市群已成为能源消耗强度最高的地区之一。为了研究科技创新、产业结构升级与碳足迹之间的动态关系，本文选取了 2006-2019 年京津冀地区的面板数据，构建面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型进行实证研究。研究结果表明，产业结构升级与碳足迹之间存在因果关系，且二者之间的相互影响显著。科技创新对碳足迹的影响存在“回弹效应”。科技创新能够加速产业结构升级。碳足迹对产业结构升级和科技创新均具有显著的后向倒逼效应，影响系数分别为 0.0671 和 0.2120。相较于科技创新，产业结构升级对碳足迹的影响更大，方差贡献率为 25.4%。研究结论有助于为京津冀协同发展提供政策支持，促进“双碳”目标的实现。
