Have carbon emissions been reduced due to the upgrading of industrial structure? Analysis of the mediating effect based on technological innovation.

The problem of global climate change is a common problem faced by all countries, and developing countries will face heavier pressure to reduce carbon emissions while promoting economic development. China is currently in a period of economic transformation, and the contradiction of industrial structure upgrading is becoming more and more prominent. The unreasonable industrial structure has caused a large consumption of resources, hindering the optimal allocation of resources and affecting carbon emissions. Technological innovation is an important force to cope with environmental changes, promote economic growth, and improve comprehensive competitiveness. Can technological innovation achieve carbon emission reduction under industrial structure upgrading? In this paper, industrial structure upgrading, technological innovation, and carbon emissions are studied together, and the impact of industrial structure upgrading, technological innovation on carbon emissions is theoretically analyzed, as well as how industrial structure upgrading acts on carbon emissions through technological innovation. An empirical test is conducted using 30 provincial panel data in China from 2005 to 2017, and it is found that industrial structure upgrading can reduce carbon emissions. An econometric analysis based on the mediating effect model finds that industrial structure upgrading has both a direct carbon emission reduction effect and a mediating effect of reducing carbon emissions through technological innovation, and the mediating effect of technological innovation in reducing carbon emissions remains significant in the regression analysis of sub-regions. Based on the research of this paper, it is suggested that the advanced development of industrial structure should be promoted, the rationalization of industrial structure should be promoted, the innovation development strategy should be firmly implemented, and the level of technological innovation should be promoted.