Lancet Infect Dis. 2022 Nov;22(11):1626-1647. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00510-2. Epub 2022 Aug 11.
BACKGROUND: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. METHODS: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths. INTERPRETATION: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
背景:下呼吸道感染(LRIs)在 5 岁以上儿童和成人中的全球负担及其相应的风险因素尚未像在 5 岁以下儿童中那样得到全面研究。我们评估了所有年龄组按性别划分的 LRI 负担和趋势以及风险因素。
方法:在这项关于全球疾病、伤害和风险因素研究(GBD)2019 的分析中,我们使用临床医生诊断的肺炎或细支气管炎作为 LRI 的病例定义。我们包括国际疾病分类第 9 版代码 079.6、466-469、470.0、480-482.8、483.0-483.9、484.1-484.2、484.6-484.7 和 487-489,以及国际疾病分类第 10 版代码 A48.1、A70、B97.4-B97.6、J09-J15.8、J16-J16.9、J20-J21.9、J91.0、P23.0-P23.4 和 U04-U04.9。我们使用死因综合模型策略分析了 23109 个地点年的生命登记数据、825 个地点年的样本生命登记数据、1766 个地点年的死因推断数据和 681 个地点年的死亡率监测数据。我们使用 DisMod-MR 2.1 分析了通过文献系统综述、人群调查数据和索赔和住院数据确定的年龄-性别特异性发病率和患病率数据。此外,我们估计了 14 个独立风险因素对 LRI 死亡率的独立影响。
发现:2019 年,全球有 2.57 亿(95%置信区间 [UI] 2.40-2.75)男性和 2.32 亿(2.17-2.48)女性发生 LRI 病例。同年,LRIs 导致 130 万(95%UI 1.18-1.42)男性和 120 万(1.07-1.33)女性死亡。2019 年,男性的年龄标准化发病率和死亡率分别比女性高 1.17 倍(95%UI 1.16-1.18)和 1.31 倍(95%UI 1.23-1.41)。1990 年至 2019 年期间,LRIs 的发病率和死亡率在不同年龄组之间以不同的速度下降,预计所有成年年龄组的 LRI 病例和死亡人数都会增加,其中 70 岁及以上的男性 LRI 病例增加最多(126.0% [95%UI 121.4-131.1])和死亡人数(100.0% [83.4-115.9])。在此期间,观察到 5 岁以下儿童的 LRI 病例和死亡人数有所下降,5 岁以下男性的 LRI 死亡人数下降幅度最大(-70.7% [-77.2 至-61.8])。LRI 死亡率的主要风险因素因年龄组和性别而异。5 岁以下儿童中有超过一半的全球 LRI 死亡归因于儿童消瘦(男性的人群归因分数 [PAF]为 53.0% [95%UI 37.7-61.8],女性为 56.4% [40.7-65.1]),15-49 岁年龄组中有超过四分之一的 LRI 死亡归因于家庭空气污染(男性的 PAF 为 26.0% [95%UI 16.6-35.5],女性为 PAF 为 25.8% [16.3-35.4])。吸烟导致的男性 LRI 死亡率 PAF 为 15-49 岁年龄组的 20.4%(95%UI 15.4-25.2)、50-69 岁年龄组的 30.5%(24.1-36.9)和 70 岁及以上年龄组的 21.9%(16.8-27.3)。家庭空气污染导致的女性 LRI 死亡率 PAF 为 15-49 岁年龄组的 21.1%(95%UI 14.5-27.9)和 50-69 岁年龄组的 18.2%(12.5-24.5)。对于 70 岁及以上的女性,主要风险因素是环境颗粒物,占 LRI 死亡人数的 11.7%(95%UI 8.2-15.8)。
解释:LRIs 及其与死亡率相关的关键风险因素的模式和减少负担的进展因年龄组和性别而异。5 岁以下儿童的进展显然是由于有针对性的干预措施,如疫苗接种和减少接触风险因素。其他年龄组的类似干预措施可以有助于实现多个可持续发展目标的目标,包括促进所有年龄段的健康和减少健康不平等。干预措施,包括解决儿童消瘦、吸烟、环境颗粒物污染和家庭空气污染等风险因素,将预防死亡和减少健康差距。
资助:比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会。
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