Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jan;30(2):4694-4708. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-22543-6. Epub 2022 Aug 16.
Summertime ozone pollution has become increasingly severe over many parts of China in recent years. Due to lack of historical ozone observations, few studies have analyzed the linkage between natural climate variability and ozone levels for a long time series. This study uses the simulation datasets from CMIP6 to explore the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on summertime (June/July/August) surface ozone concentrations in central-eastern China (CEC; 20°N-42°N, 100°E-123°E) during the period of 1950-2014. Our results show that, after excluding the emission-related trend, the detrended summertime daily mean surface ozone concentrations averaged over CEC in El Niño years (30.69 ppb) are higher than those in La Niña events (29.34 ppb). Compared to the summertime mean ozone of 1950-2014 (30.25 ppb), the maximum anomalies in CMIP6 are 2.88 ppb (9.52% higher) and - 5.52 ppb (18.25% lower) in El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. In addition, the summertime MDA8 ozone of CEC is significantly correlated with the central-eastern equatorial Pacific SST (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) (R = 0.29, P-value = 0.02). Such ozone increases/declines in El Niño/La Niña years are also found in satellite observations of OMI ozone. The results show that the ENSO affects the large-scale circulations over central-eastern China, which regulate the regional atmospheric stability and meteorological conditions (including horizontal wind fields, geopotential height, vertical velocity, surface air temperature, and precipitation) to influence the efficiency of ozone photochemical formation and transport. Our study makes better estimation and attribution of future surface ozone pollution in China.
近年来，中国许多地区的夏季臭氧污染日益严重。由于缺乏历史臭氧观测数据，长期以来，很少有研究分析自然气候变率与臭氧水平之间的联系。本研究使用 CMIP6 的模拟数据集，探讨厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）对中国中东部（20°N-42°N，100°E-123°E）夏季（6/7/8 月）地面臭氧浓度的影响。我们的结果表明，在排除排放相关趋势后，厄尔尼诺年（30.69 ppb）中国中东部夏季逐日平均地面臭氧浓度（30.69 ppb）高于拉尼娜事件（29.34 ppb）。与 1950-2014 年夏季平均臭氧浓度（30.25 ppb）相比，CMIP6 中的最大异常值分别为厄尔尼诺年和拉尼娜年的 2.88 ppb（高 9.52%）和-5.52 ppb（低 18.25%）。此外，中国中东部臭氧的夏季 MDA8 与赤道中东部太平洋 SST（5°N-5°S，170°W-120°W）显著相关（R=0.29，P 值=0.02）。在 OMI 臭氧卫星观测中也发现了厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜年臭氧的增加/减少。结果表明，ENSO 影响了中国中东部的大尺度环流，调节了区域大气稳定性和气象条件（包括水平风场、位势高度、垂直速度、地面气温和降水），从而影响了臭氧光化学形成和传输的效率。本研究提高了对中国未来地面臭氧污染的估计和归因。
