The number line estimation task is a valid tool for assessing mathematical achievement: A population-level study with 6484 Luxembourgish ninth-graders.

The number line estimation task is an often-used measure of numerical magnitude understanding. The task also correlates substantially with broader measures of mathematical achievement. This raises the question of whether the task would be a useful component of mathematical achievement tests and instruments to diagnose dyscalculia or mathematical giftedness and whether a stand-alone version of the task can serve as a short screener for mathematical achievement. Previous studies on the relation between number line estimation accuracy and broader mathematical achievement were limited in that they used relatively small nonrepresentative samples and usually did not account for potentially confounding variables. To close this research gap, we report findings from a population-level study with nearly all Luxembourgish ninth-graders (N = 6484). We used multilevel regressions to test how a standardized mathematical achievement test relates to the accuracy in number line estimation on bounded number lines with whole numbers and fractions. We also investigated how these relations were moderated by classroom characteristics, person characteristics, and trial characteristics. Mathematical achievement and number line estimation accuracy were associated even after controlling for potentially confounding variables. Subpopulations of students showed meaningful differences in estimation accuracy, which can serve as benchmarks in future studies. Compared with the number line estimation task with whole numbers, the number line estimation task with fractions was more strongly related to mathematical achievement in students across the entire mathematical achievement spectrum. These results show that the number line estimation task is a valid and useful tool for diagnosing and monitoring mathematical achievement.