School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
PLoS One. 2022 Aug 22;17(8):e0270061. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270061. eCollection 2022.
Although three monovalent EV-A71 vaccines have been launched in mainland China since 2016, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) still causes a considerable disease burden in China. Vaccines' use may change the epidemiological characters of HFMD. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scan statistics analysis were used to explore the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of this disease at the provincial level in mainland China. The effects of meteorological factors, socio-economic factors, and health resources on HFMD incidence were analyzed using Geodetector. Interrupted time series (ITS) was used to analyze the impact of the EV-A71 vaccine on the incidence of HFMD. This study found that the median annual incidence of HFMD was 153.78 per 100,000 (ranging from 120.79 to 205.06) in mainland China from 2011 to 2018. Two peaks of infections were observed per year. Children 5 years and under were the main morbid population. The spatial distribution of HFMD was presented a significant clustering pattern in each year (P<0.001). The distribution of HFMD cases was clustered in time and space. The range of cluster time was between April and October. The most likely cluster appeared in the southern coastal provinces (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan) from 2011 to 2017 and in the eastern coastal provinces (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) in 2018. The spatial heterogeneity of HFMD incidence could be attributed to meteorological factors, socioeconomic factors, and health resource. After introducing the EV-A71 vaccine, the instantaneous level of HFMD incidence decreased at the national level, and HFMD incidence trended downward in the southern coastal provinces and increased in the eastern coastal provinces. The prevention and control policies of HFMD should be adapted to local conditions in different provinces. It is necessary to advance the EV-A71 vaccination plan, expand the vaccine coverage and develop multivalent HFMD vaccines as soon as possible.
尽管自 2016 年以来,中国大陆已经推出了三种单价肠道病毒 71 型(EV-A71)疫苗,但手足口病(HFMD)仍在中国造成相当大的疾病负担。疫苗的使用可能会改变 HFMD 的流行病学特征。本研究采用空间自相关分析和时空扫描统计分析方法,探讨中国大陆省级水平 HFMD 的时空分布模式。采用地理探测器分析气象因素、社会经济因素和卫生资源对 HFMD 发病率的影响。采用中断时间序列(ITS)分析 EV-A71 疫苗对 HFMD 发病率的影响。本研究发现,2011 年至 2018 年中国大陆 HFMD 的年平均发病率为 153.78/10 万(范围为 120.79 至 205.06)。每年有两个感染高峰。5 岁及以下儿童是主要发病人群。HFMD 的空间分布在每年均呈现显著聚集模式(P<0.001)。HFMD 病例的分布在时间和空间上具有聚集性。聚集时间范围在 4 月至 10 月之间。2011 年至 2017 年,最有可能的聚集区出现在南部沿海省份(广西、广东、海南),2018 年出现在东部沿海省份(上海、江苏、浙江)。HFMD 发病率的空间异质性可归因于气象因素、社会经济因素和卫生资源。引入 EV-A71 疫苗后,全国 HFMD 发病率的即时水平下降,南部沿海省份的 HFMD 发病率呈下降趋势,而东部沿海省份的发病率则上升。不同省份应根据当地情况制定 HFMD 防控政策。有必要推进 EV-A71 疫苗接种计划,扩大疫苗覆盖范围,并尽快开发多价 HFMD 疫苗。