一种简单的模型，用于估计 SARS-COV-2 的 Beta、Delta 和 Omicron 变体在南非的传播能力。
A simple model to estimate the transmissibility of the Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants of SARS-COV-2 in South Africa.
机构信息
Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
State Key Laboratory for Strength and Vibration of Mechanical Structures, School of Aerospace Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China.
出版信息
Math Biosci Eng. 2022 Jul 22;19(10):10361-10373. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022485.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused multiple waves of mortality in South Africa, where three genetic variants of SARS-COV-2 and their ancestral strain dominated consecutively. State-of-the-art mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the time-varying transmissibility of SARS-COV-2 and the relative transmissibility of Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants. The transmissibility of the three variants were about 73%, 87%, and 276% higher than their preceding variants. To the best of our knowledge, our model is the first simple model that can simulate multiple mortality waves and three variants' replacements in South Africa. The transmissibility of the Omicron variant is substantially higher than that of previous variants.
新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行在南非造成了多波死亡，其中三种 SARS-CoV-2 遗传变异株及其原始株连续占主导地位。使用最先进的数学建模方法来估计 SARS-CoV-2 的时变传染性以及 Beta、Delta 和奥密克戎变异株的相对传染性。三种变异株的传染性比其前一种变异株分别高出约 73%、87%和 276%。据我们所知，我们的模型是第一个可以模拟南非多波死亡和三种变异株更替的简单模型。奥密克戎变异株的传染性明显高于以前的变异株。
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