南非与 Beta SARS-CoV-2 变体相关的传染性和病死率变化的初步评估：一项生态学研究。
A tentative assessment of the changes in transmissibility and fatality risk associated with Beta SARS-CoV-2 variants in South Africa: an ecological study.
机构信息
JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China.
出版信息
Pathog Glob Health. 2022 May;116(3):137-139. doi: 10.1080/20477724.2021.2014236. Epub 2021 Dec 20.
The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Beta (B.1.351) variants challenged the control of COVID-19 pandemic. The numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths and SARS-CoV-2 sequences in South Africa were collected. We reconstructed the variant-specified reproduction numbers (R t) and delay-adjusted case fatality ratio (CFR) to examine the changes in transmissibility and fatality risk of Beta over non-Beta variants. We estimated that Beta variants were 41% (95%CI: 16, 73) more transmissible and 53% (95%CI: 6, 108) more fatal than non-Beta variants. Higher risks of infection and fatality might lead to increasing volumes of infections and critical patients.
新冠病毒 Beta（B.1.351）变体的传播对新冠疫情的控制构成了挑战。我们收集了南非的新冠病例和死亡人数以及新冠病毒序列。我们重建了特定变体的繁殖数（Rt）和延迟调整的病死率（CFR），以研究 Beta 变体相对于非 Beta 变体的传染性和致死风险的变化。我们估计，Beta 变体比非 Beta 变体的传染性高 41%（95%CI：16，73），致死率高 53%（95%CI：6，108）。感染和致死风险的增加可能会导致感染人数和重症患者数量的增加。
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