National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW, New South Wales.
Western NSW Local Health District, New South Wales.
Aust N Z J Public Health. 2022 Oct;46(5):581-587. doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.13211. Epub 2022 Sep 1.
To evaluate the impact of a multi-component, Aboriginal-led strategy to reduce alcohol-related criminal incidents for Aboriginal people in four rural/remote communities in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.
A retrospective multiple baseline design (MBD), using interrupted time series analysis of routinely collected crime data.
A statistically significant reduction in alcohol-related criminal incidents was observed in one community for both victims of crime (parameter estimate -0.195; p≤0.01) and persons of interest (parameter estimate -0.282; p≤0.001). None of the analyses show level shifts, meaning there were no measurable changes immediately post the introduction of the Breaking the Cycle (BTC) programs.
It is not possible to conclude that the program was effective independently of any other community factors, because the statistically significant result was not observed across multiple communities. The statistically significant result in one community has clear practical benefits in that community: a sustained impact over two years would reduce Aboriginal victims of alcohol-related crime from an estimated 56 incidents per annum to 36, and reduce Aboriginal persons of interest in alcohol-related crime from an estimated 68 alcohol-related person of interest (POI) per annum to 40.
The statistically and practically meaningful result in Community 1 highlights the potential of multi-component, Aboriginal-led strategies to reduce alcohol-related criminal incidents. Earlier engagement with researchers, to identify best-evidence strategies to reduce alcohol harms and to facilitate the use of prospective evaluation designs, would help translate the positive outcome in one community across multiple communities.
评估一项多组分、以原住民为主导的策略对澳大利亚新南威尔士州（NSW）四个农村/偏远社区原住民中与酒精相关的犯罪事件的影响。
使用常规犯罪数据的回顾性多基线设计（MBD）和中断时间序列分析。
在一个社区中，无论是犯罪受害者（参数估计值-0.195；p≤0.01）还是有兴趣的人（参数估计值-0.282；p≤0.001），与酒精相关的犯罪事件都出现了统计学上显著减少。没有任何分析显示水平转移，这意味着在引入“打破循环”（BTC）项目后，没有可衡量的变化。
不能单独得出该计划有效的结论，因为在多个社区中没有观察到统计学上显著的结果。一个社区中统计学上显著的结果在该社区具有明显的实际意义：持续两年的影响将使与酒精相关的犯罪的原住民受害者从估计每年 56 起减少到 36 起，使与酒精相关的犯罪的原住民有兴趣的人从估计每年 68 个与酒精相关的有兴趣的人（POI）减少到 40 个。
社区 1 中统计学上和实际意义上的显著结果突显了多组分、以原住民为主导的策略减少与酒精相关的犯罪事件的潜力。早期与研究人员合作，确定减少酒精危害的最佳证据策略，并促进使用前瞻性评估设计，将有助于将一个社区的积极成果推广到多个社区。
