Kong Fan-Bin, Yuan Ru-Xue, Xu Cai-Yao
College of Economics and Management, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China.
Zhejiang Province Key Cultivating Think Tank-Research Academy for Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2022 Jul;33(7):2009-2016. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202207.026.
The imbalance of regional development is one of the important obstacles for the implementation of regio-nal coordinated development strategy. Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2019, the regional coordinated development index system with five subsystems was constructed, including economic development, science and education, infrastructure, people's life, and resource and environment. With the help of GeoDa and ArcGIS software, we used measurement model of regional coordinated development and method of exploratory spatial data analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial variations and internal correlation of various elements of regional coordinated development in the Yangtze River Delta. The results showed that, from the perspective of regional development, the coordination of regional development in the Yangtze River Delta had increased annually from 2010 to 2019. The level of economic development and science and education in Shanghai and Suzhou was ahead of other cities, while the development coordination of Northwest Anhui, Zhoushan and Huangshan was weaker than other cities. The order of average autocorrelation degree of each subsystem from high to low in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2019 was people's life, economic development, resource and environment, science and education, and infrastructure. Among them, the global Moran's index (Moran ) of economic development and science and education subsystem showed a downward trend, while science and education subsystem showed no significant correlation. Moran of infrastructure subsystem was mostly at the low level with a great fluctuation in different years. People's life had obvious spatial characteristics of high-high and low-low agglomeration. The global Moran of resources and environment showed a pattern of "V" distribution. Economic development and science and education were the two factors most closely related to regional coordinated development.
区域发展不平衡是实施区域协调发展战略的重要障碍之一。基于2010—2019年长江三角洲41个城市的面板数据，构建了包含经济发展、科教、基础设施、人民生活、资源环境5个子系统的区域协调发展指标体系。借助GeoDa和ArcGIS软件，运用区域协调发展测度模型和探索性空间数据分析方法，对长江三角洲区域协调发展各要素的时空变化及内在相关性进行分析。结果表明，从区域发展来看，2010—2019年长江三角洲区域发展协调性逐年提高。上海和苏州的经济发展和科教水平领先于其他城市，而皖西北、舟山和黄山的发展协调性弱于其他城市。2010—2019年长江三角洲各子系统平均自相关程度从高到低依次为人民生活、经济发展、资源环境、科教、基础设施。其中，经济发展和科教子系统的全局莫兰指数（Moran’s I）呈下降趋势，科教子系统无显著相关性。基础设施子系统的Moran’s I大多处于较低水平，不同年份波动较大。人民生活具有明显的高高集聚和低低集聚的空间特征。资源环境的全局Moran’s I呈“V”形分布。经济发展和科教是与区域协调发展关系最为密切的两个因素。
