Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, Anglesey, UK.
Nat Commun. 2022 Sep 2;13(1):5156. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32830-y.
How lake temperatures across large geographic regions are responding to widespread alterations in ice phenology (i.e., the timing of seasonal ice formation and loss) remains unclear. Here, we analyse satellite data and global-scale simulations to investigate the contribution of long-term variations in the seasonality of lake ice to surface water temperature trends across the Northern Hemisphere. Our analysis suggests a widespread excess lake surface warming during the months of ice-off which is, on average, 1.4 times that calculated during the open-water season. This excess warming is influenced predominantly by an 8-day advancement in the average timing of ice break-up from 1979 to 2020. Until the permanent loss of lake ice in the future, excess lake warming may be further amplified due to projected future alterations in lake ice phenology. Excess lake warming will likely alter within-lake physical and biogeochemical processes with numerous implications for lake ecosystems.
大范围的冰期变化（即季节性冰形成和消失的时间）如何影响大地理区域的湖泊温度仍不清楚。在这里，我们分析了卫星数据和全球规模的模拟，以研究湖泊冰季节性的长期变化对北半球地表水温度趋势的贡献。我们的分析表明，在冰融期间，湖泊表面普遍过度变暖，平均而言，比开放水域季节期间的变暖高出 1.4 倍。这种额外的变暖主要受到 1979 年至 2020 年期间冰破裂平均时间提前 8 天的影响。在未来湖泊永久失去冰之前，由于预计未来湖泊冰期的变化，额外的湖泊变暖可能会进一步放大。额外的湖泊变暖可能会改变湖泊内的物理和生物地球化学过程，对湖泊生态系统产生众多影响。
