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比较威布尔分布的八种方法,以确定与从气象桅杆测量的风数据最拟合的分布参数。

Comparison of eight methods of Weibull distribution for determining the best-fit distribution parameters with wind data measured from the met-mast.

作者信息

Yaniktepe Bulent, Kara Osman, Aladag Ilyas, Ozturk Cenk

机构信息

Energy Systems Engineering Department, Osmaniye Korkut Ata University, Osmaniye, Turkey.

Electrical Department, Kadirli Vocational School, Osmaniye Korkut Ata University, Osmaniye, Turkey.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jan;30(4):9576-9590. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-22777-4. Epub 2022 Sep 3.

Abstract

In order to assess the wind characteristics of a specified region, a pre-analysis of the region can be made with different numerical methods. For instance, the two-parameter Weibull distribution is widely used in wind energy studies and the wind energy sector to obtain information about the wind characteristics of the specified region. The main goal of this study is to perform a detailed analysis of the data obtained from the wind measurement sensors on a meteorological mast with a height of 80 m to determine the wind characteristics and wind energy potential of a region in Osmaniye, Turkey. The suitability of the two-parameter Weibull distribution, which is the most popular probability distribution model, was investigated to evaluate the distribution of these wind data. In the precise determination of the Weibull distribution parameters (k and c), the suitability of eight different numerical methods, namely, graphical (GM), empirical of Justus (EMJ), empirical of Lysen (EML), power density (PDM), moment (MoM), maximum likelihood (MLM), modified maximum likelihood (MMLM), and alternative maximum likelihood (AMLM) methods, was examined. Root-mean-square error (RMSE), chi-square (X), and analysis of variance (R) were used to compare and verify the performance of these models. The best and worst performances in these eight methods were MMLM and GM, compared with the actual measured data. Also, wind power density was calculated considering these methods and prevailing wind directions.

摘要

为了评估特定区域的风特性,可以使用不同的数值方法对该区域进行预分析。例如,双参数威布尔分布在风能研究和风能领域中被广泛用于获取有关特定区域风特性的信息。本研究的主要目标是对从高度为80米的气象桅杆上的测风传感器获得的数据进行详细分析,以确定土耳其奥斯曼尼耶一个地区的风特性和风能潜力。研究了最流行的概率分布模型双参数威布尔分布对这些风数据分布的适用性。在精确确定威布尔分布参数(k和c)时,研究了八种不同数值方法的适用性,即图形法(GM)、贾斯特斯经验法(EMJ)、利森经验法(EML)、功率密度法(PDM)、矩法(MoM)、最大似然法(MLM)、修正最大似然法(MMLM)和替代最大似然法(AMLM)。使用均方根误差(RMSE)、卡方(X)和方差分析(R)来比较和验证这些模型的性能。与实际测量数据相比,这八种方法中性能最佳和最差的分别是MMLM和GM。此外,还考虑这些方法和盛行风向计算了风能密度。

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