State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou, 311300, China; Key Laboratory of Carbon Cycling in Forest Ecosystems and Carbon Sequestration of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou, 311300, China; School of Environmental and Resources Science, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China.
School of Remote Sensing & Geomatics Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Key Laboratory of Network Information System Technology (NIST), Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China.
J Environ Manage. 2022 Nov 15;322:115983. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115983. Epub 2022 Sep 1.
With astonishing and rapid development in China since the Reform and Opening-up in 1978, serious air pollution has become a great challenge. A better understanding of the response of PM pollution to socioeconomic development after the Reform and Opening-up policy is benefit for pollution control. However, heterogeneous influences of biophysical and socioeconomic activities on PM pollution pose great challenges in statistical simulation of PM. Few statistical model regards aerosol species as the explanatory variables for heterogeneous formation mechanism to retrieve PM concentration. In this research, monthly PM concentration in China during 1980-2020 was reconstructed by a novel statistical strategy considering aerosol components (AC-RF). Three cross-validation (CV) methods, sample-based CV, spatial-based CV and temporal-based CV results indicated satisfactory performance of AC-RF model with correlation coefficient (R) of 0.92, 0.90, 0.86, respectively. A three-stage concluded on PM concentration annual variation in China was drawn as followed: Before 2000, PM level in China represented smooth evolution and mainly influenced by natural events with polluted region locating in Xinjiang province, North China and Central China. Since 2000, PM concentration increased to high level in the context of rapid socioeconomic development. Severe air pollution covered Jing-Jin-Ji agglomeration, Central China and Sichuan Basin. During 2012-2020, PM declined and polluted region shrank, which was benefited by the strictest-ever air pollution control measures. Based on aerosol components analysis, sulfate aerosol exhibited the most significant increase trend in recent 40 years and black aerosol variation is the most closely related to PM pollution. In conclusion, unsustainable development is the culprit for air quality deterioration. Strict and continuous air pollution control strategies are effective for air quality improvement.
自 1978 年改革开放以来，中国经济发展迅速，空气污染问题日益严重，成为一大挑战。深入了解改革开放政策后，细颗粒物（PM）污染对社会经济发展的响应，有利于污染控制。然而，生物物理和社会经济活动的异质性影响对 PM 污染的统计模拟提出了巨大挑战。很少有统计模型将气溶胶物种作为解释变量来研究 PM 不均匀形成机制，以反演 PM 浓度。本研究采用一种新的统计策略，考虑气溶胶成分（AC-RF），重建了 1980-2020 年中国逐月 PM 浓度。三种交叉验证（CV）方法，基于样本的 CV、基于空间的 CV 和基于时间的 CV，结果表明 AC-RF 模型具有较好的性能，相关系数（R）分别为 0.92、0.90、0.86。总结出中国 PM 浓度年际变化的三个阶段：2000 年以前，中国 PM 水平呈平稳演变，主要受自然事件影响，污染区位于新疆、华北和华中地区。2000 年以来，在中国快速社会经济发展的背景下，PM 浓度上升到较高水平。严重的空气污染覆盖了京津冀城市群、华中地区和四川盆地。2012-2020 年，PM 浓度下降，污染区缩小，这得益于有史以来最严格的空气污染控制措施。基于气溶胶成分分析，硫酸盐气溶胶在过去 40 年中表现出最显著的增加趋势，黑碳气溶胶的变化与 PM 污染最密切相关。总之，不可持续的发展是空气质量恶化的罪魁祸首。严格而持续的空气污染控制策略是改善空气质量的有效手段。
