Lal Rajnesh, Huang Weidong, Li Zhenquan, Prasad Swastika
School of Mathematical and Computing Sciences, Fiji National University, Lautoka, Fiji.
TD School, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, New South Wales 2007, Australia.
R Soc Open Sci. 2022 Aug 31;9(8):220004. doi: 10.1098/rsos.220004. eCollection 2022 Aug.
This study involves the estimation of a key epidemiological parameter for evaluating and monitoring the transmissibility of a disease. The time-varying reproduction number is the index for quantifying the transmissibility of infectious diseases. Accurate and timely estimation of the time-varying reproduction number is essential for optimizing non-pharmacological interventions and movement control orders during epidemics. The time-varying reproduction number for the second wave of the pandemic in Fiji is estimated using the popular EpiEstim R package and the publicly available COVID-19 data from 19 April 2021 to 1 December 2021. Our findings show that the non-pharmacological interventions and movement control orders introduced and enforced by the Fijian Government had a significant impact in preventing the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, the results show that many restrictions were either relaxed or eased when the time-varying reproduction number was below the threshold value of 1. The results have provided some information on the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic that could be used in the future as a guide for public health policymakers in Fiji. Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers would be helpful for continuous monitoring of the effectiveness of the current public health policies that are being implemented in Fiji.
本研究涉及对一个关键流行病学参数的估计，该参数用于评估和监测一种疾病的传播性。时变繁殖数是量化传染病传播性的指标。准确及时地估计时变繁殖数对于在疫情期间优化非药物干预措施和行动控制命令至关重要。使用流行的EpiEstim R软件包和2021年4月19日至2021年12月1日公开可用的COVID-19数据，对斐济第二波疫情的时变繁殖数进行了估计。我们的研究结果表明，斐济政府出台并实施的非药物干预措施和行动控制命令对预防COVID-19的传播产生了重大影响。此外，结果表明，当时变繁殖数低于阈值1时，许多限制措施要么放松要么放宽。这些结果提供了一些关于COVID-19第二波疫情的信息，未来可作为斐济公共卫生政策制定者的指导。估计时变繁殖数将有助于持续监测斐济目前正在实施的公共卫生政策的有效性。
