Yang Qing, Liu Gengyuan, Xu Linyu, Ulgiati Sergio, Casazza Marco, Hao Yan, Lu Zhongming, Deng Xiaoya, Yang Zhifeng
Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China.
Advanced Interdisciplinary Institute of Environment and Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.
iScience. 2022 Aug 13;25(9):104928. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104928. eCollection 2022 Sep 16.
Substantial evidence indicates that China's afforestation statistically contributed to the ecosystem services (ES) improvement. However, we found the potential challenges behind this improvement, especially in water-limited areas. We propose an attribution analysis method, which can assess the specific contribution of natural, human and cognition degree drivers to ES dynamics. The results found that the ratio of natural and human drivers in the area north of China's 400 mm precipitation isopleth is 2:7. This means local vegetation capacity has already exceeded water limitation, implying a conflict between nature and humans. However, the natural contribution in the area between 400 and 800 mm precipitation isopleth is negative, whereas the human contribution is 91%. This means this area has fragile natural conditions and needs more flexible policies. The ratio of natural and human drivers in the region south of 800 mm precipitation isopleth is 6:3, suggesting the ecological policies here can be maintained.
大量证据表明，中国的造林在统计上有助于生态系统服务（ES）的改善。然而，我们发现了这种改善背后的潜在挑战，特别是在水资源有限的地区。我们提出了一种归因分析方法，该方法可以评估自然、人类和认知程度驱动因素对生态系统服务动态变化的具体贡献。结果发现，在中国400毫米降水等值线以北地区，自然和人类驱动因素的比例为2:7。这意味着当地植被容量已经超过了水资源限制，暗示了人与自然之间的冲突。然而，在400至800毫米降水等值线之间的地区，自然贡献为负，而人类贡献为91%。这意味着该地区自然条件脆弱，需要更灵活的政策。800毫米降水等值线以南地区自然和人类驱动因素的比例为6:3，表明这里的生态政策可以维持。
