Valente Riccardo, Medina-Ariza Juanjo
Department of Geography, University of Rovira I Virgili, Tarragona, Spain.
Department of Criminal Law and Crime Sciences, University of Seville, Seville, Spain.
Eur J Crim Pol Res. 2022 Sep 1:1-23. doi: 10.1007/s10610-022-09528-4.
This study looks at the spatial distribution of robbery against residents as a function of nonstationary density and mobility patterns in the most densely populated city in Spain, Barcelona. Based on the geographical coordinates of mobile devices, we computed two measures of density of the ambient population and the tourist presence, for work days, weekends, and holidays in 2019. Negative binomial regressions are then estimated to analyse whether these measures are correlated with the risk of robbery, controlling for land use and the characteristics of the social environment. The model reveals that residents' chances of being exposed to robbery in Barcelona depend on the social relevance and tourism attractiveness of certain places at particular times of the year. Our results disclose two sources of social disorganization as stronger predictors of the occurrence of robbery in Barcelona, respectively linked to structural processes of residential instability and daily and seasonal mobility patterns. On the one hand, we found that the effect of the density of international tourists on the outcome variable is mediated by residential volatility, which is assumed to be associated with housing shortages in neighbourhoods where short-term vacation rentals are widespread. On the other hand, the ability to exert effective social control is significantly undermined in urban areas, where the ambient population and the volume of tourists outnumber the resident population, thus increasing incidents of robbery victimization. The implications of these findings for urban policy and crime prevention in the Catalan capital are discussed.
本研究考察了西班牙人口最密集的城市巴塞罗那针对居民的抢劫案的空间分布情况，该分布是人口密度和流动模式非平稳变化的函数。基于移动设备的地理坐标，我们计算了2019年工作日、周末和节假日期间常住人口密度和游客数量的两项指标。随后，我们进行负二项回归分析，以研究这些指标是否与抢劫风险相关，并控制土地利用和社会环境特征的影响。该模型显示，巴塞罗那居民遭遇抢劫的可能性取决于一年中特定时间某些地点的社会相关性和旅游吸引力。我们的研究结果揭示了社会失序的两个根源，它们是巴塞罗那抢劫案发生的更强预测因素，分别与居住不稳定的结构过程以及日常和季节性流动模式有关。一方面，我们发现国际游客密度对结果变量的影响是通过居住波动性来介导的，而居住波动性被认为与短期度假租赁广泛存在的社区住房短缺有关。另一方面，在城市地区，常住人口和游客数量超过居民人口数量，这严重削弱了有效社会控制的能力，从而增加了抢劫受害事件的发生。我们还讨论了这些研究结果对加泰罗尼亚首府城市政策和预防犯罪的启示。
