Ardiyono Sulistiyo K
Australian National University, Australia.
The Central Bank of Indonesia, Indonesia.
Econ Anal Policy. 2022 Dec;76:337-372. doi: 10.1016/j.eap.2022.08.021. Epub 2022 Sep 1.
Numerous studies have explored the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on firms' financial performance, but the link between such performance and employment has rarely been estimated rigorously. Using the ASEAN-5 firms' data from Q1-2018 to Q3-2021, this study shows how the pandemic affects firms' revenue, cost, profitability, and employment heterogeneously across countries. It is argued that while revenue losses are the main challenge, widespread and prolonged restrictions in some countries have created extra complications in idle inventories and labour. In response to the revenue shocks, firms reduce their employment with an elasticity of around 0.10, indicating that a 10 per cent revenue decline is associated with a 1 per cent headcount reduction in the short run. A further examination using event analyses reveals that the path of labour adjustment is diverse across countries and industries, reflecting the degree of pandemic severity and countries' structural issues.
众多研究探讨了新冠疫情对企业财务绩效的影响，但此类绩效与就业之间的联系却鲜有严谨的评估。本研究利用2018年第一季度至2021年第三季度东盟五国企业的数据，展示了疫情如何在不同国家对企业的收入、成本、盈利能力和就业产生不同影响。研究认为，虽然收入损失是主要挑战，但一些国家广泛且长期的限制措施给闲置库存和劳动力带来了额外的复杂问题。为应对收入冲击，企业以约0.10的弹性减少就业，这表明在短期内，收入下降10%会导致员工数量减少1%。通过事件分析的进一步研究表明，各国和各行业的劳动力调整路径各不相同，这反映了疫情的严重程度和各国的结构性问题。
