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减少不平等能否降低中国的碳排放?一个反事实分析。

Can inequality reduction decrease carbon emissions in China? A counterfactual analysis.

机构信息

Department of Public and International Affairs, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.

Department of Public and International Affairs, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2022 Nov 15;322:116089. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116089. Epub 2022 Sep 5.

DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116089
PMID:36070650
Abstract

The relationship between the two sustainable development goals (SDGs)-inequality reduction and carbon emission reduction is critical for governments formulating and implementing environmental and redistribution policies. This study uses micro survey data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to conduct a counterfactual analysis that decomposes and quantifies the net effects of consumption growth, redistribution, and changing patterns of consumption on household carbon emissions. The counterfactual approach helps to overcome the endogeneity concerns. The findings of our study convey a profoundly important and alarming message: the redistribution measures for inequality reduction may increase household carbon emissions. The findings attest to the need for Chinese policymakers to seriously consider the trade-off between inequality reduction and emission reduction, particularly in certain regions in China. To address the trade-off, one key measure is to encourage low-carbon lifestyles and consumption patterns to ensure that the benefits gained by poorer households from redistribution measures will not translate into higher emissions.

摘要

两个可持续发展目标(SDGs)——减少不平等和减少碳排放之间的关系,对政府制定和实施环境和再分配政策至关重要。本研究使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的微观调查数据,进行反事实分析,分解和量化消费增长、再分配以及消费模式变化对家庭碳排放的净效应。反事实方法有助于克服内生性问题。本研究的结果传达了一个非常重要和令人警醒的信息:减少不平等的再分配措施可能会增加家庭碳排放。研究结果表明,中国政策制定者需要认真考虑减少不平等和减排之间的权衡,特别是在中国的某些地区。为了解决这种权衡,一个关键措施是鼓励低碳生活方式和消费模式,以确保贫困家庭从再分配措施中获得的利益不会转化为更高的排放。

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