School of Civil Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, 100044, China.
China Electronic Engineering Design Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing, 100142, China.
Sci Rep. 2022 Sep 7;12(1):15182. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-19380-5.
In the study of deformation prediction and disaster warning during karst slope construction, the influencing factors and deformation law should be comprehensively considered. The layout of the deformation monitoring points of karst slope is affected by the thickness of karst overburden soil, dissolution and fragmentation degree, karst development degree, slope cracking degree, fault or weak interlayer and other factors. In this paper, the author aimed at the problem of construction deformation prediction and disaster warning of karst slope, proposed an improved model of cusp mutation by applying and optimizing the cusp mutation model, analysed the deformation trend and sudden change type of the slope, and obtained the critical control early warning value of slope deformation. Therefore, it is feasible to analyse the deformation and mutation characteristics of karstified slope by using a virtual reality-mutation model. In addition, based on the empirical formula of the slope sliding limit deformation rate and grey prediction model, the critical control warning value of slope deformation is obtained, which provides a basis to quantify the deformation index of risk evaluation. This method provides a new idea to predict karst slope construction deformation and catastrophic deformation warning and has a reference value for similar engineering examples.
在喀斯特边坡施工变形预测与灾害预警研究中，应综合考虑影响因素和变形规律。喀斯特边坡变形监测点的布置受喀斯特覆盖土层厚度、溶蚀破碎程度、喀斯特发育程度、边坡开裂程度、断层或软弱夹层等因素的影响。本文针对喀斯特边坡施工变形预测与灾害预警问题，应用并优化尖点突变模型，提出了改进的尖点突变模型，分析了边坡的变形趋势和突变类型，得出了边坡变形的临界控制预警值。因此，利用虚拟现实-突变模型分析岩溶边坡的变形和突变特征是可行的。此外，基于边坡滑动极限变形速率的经验公式和灰色预测模型，得出了边坡变形的临界控制预警值，为量化风险评价的变形指标提供了依据。该方法为预测喀斯特边坡施工变形和灾难性变形预警提供了新思路，对类似工程实例具有参考价值。
