National & Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Harbor Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation Technology, Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Petrochemical Environmental Pollution Control, School of Petrochemical Engineering & Environment, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, PR China.
School of shipping and Maritime, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, Zhejiang, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Sep 1;889:164334. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164334. Epub 2023 May 18.
This paper focuses on the threat of water damage geological disasters brought by the complex terrain along the long-distance natural gas pipeline. The role of rainfall factors in the occurrence of such disasters has been fully considered, a meteorological early warning model for water damage geological disasters in mountainous areas based on slope units has been constructed to improve the prediction accuracy of such disasters and timely early warning and forecasting. An actual natural gas pipeline in a typical mountainous area of Zhejiang Province is taken as an example. The hydrology-curvature combined analysis method is chosen to divide the slope units, and the SHALSTAB model is used to fit the slope soil environment to calculate the stability level. Finally, the stability level is coupled with rainfall data to calculate the early warning index for water damage geological disasters in the study area. The results show that compared with the separate SHALSTAB model, the early warning results coupled with rainfall are more effective in predicting water damage geological disasters. The early warning results are compared with the actual disaster points, among the nine actual disaster points, most of the slope units around seven disaster points are in the state of needing early warning, the early warning accuracy rate reaches 77.8 %. The proposed early warning model can carry out targeted deployment in advance according to the divided slope units, and the prediction accuracy of geological disasters induced by heavy rainfall weather is significantly higher and more suitable for the actual location of the disaster point, which can provide a basis for accurate disaster prevention in the research area and areas with similar geological environments.
本文聚焦于长输天然气管道沿线复杂地形所带来的水毁地质灾害威胁，充分考虑了降雨因素在这类灾害发生过程中的作用，构建了基于坡元的山区水毁地质灾害气象预警模型，以提高这类灾害的预测精度和及时预警预报。以浙江省典型山区的一条实际天然气管道为例，选择水文曲率组合分析法进行坡元划分，利用 SHALSTAB 模型拟合坡面土壤环境，计算边坡稳定状态，并将稳定状态与降雨数据耦合，计算研究区水毁地质灾害预警指数。结果表明，与单独的 SHALSTAB 模型相比，与降雨耦合的预警结果在预测水毁地质灾害方面更为有效。将预警结果与实际灾害点进行对比，在 9 个实际灾害点中，7 个灾害点周边的大部分坡元都处于需要预警的状态，预警准确率达到 77.8%。所提出的预警模型可以根据划分的坡元单元提前进行有针对性的部署，对强降雨天气引发的地质灾害的预测精度更高，更符合灾害点的实际位置，可以为研究区及类似地质环境地区的精准防灾提供依据。
